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Olympic sports and failure

I wanted to post some follow-up to my prior post about sports where the contestants go to the edge and fall down. As I see it, the sports fall into the following rough classes:

  1. You push as hard as you can. The athlete who does the best — goes higher, stronger, faster — wins. The 100 metres is a perfect example.
  2. You push hard, but you must make judgments as you compete, such as how hard to push, when to pass etc. If you judge incorrectly, it lowers your final performance, but only modestly.
  3. You must judge your abilities and the condition of the course and your equipment, and choose what is difficult enough to score well, but which you can be confident you will execute. To win, you must skate (literally or figuratively) close to the edge of what you can do. If you misjudge, or have bad luck, you are penalized significantly, and will move from 1st place to the rear of the pack.

My main concern is with sports in the third group, like figure skating, half-pipe and many others, including most of the judged sports with degrees of difficulty. The concern is that sudden shift from leader to loser because you did what you are supposed to do — go close to the edge. Medals come from either being greatly superior, knowing your edge very well, which is the intention, or from being lucky that particular day — which I think is not the intention.

Many sports seek to get around this. In high jump and pole vault, you just keep raising the bar until you can’t get over it, and somebody gets over the highest bar. This is a good system, but difficult when a sport takes a long time or is draining to do even once. You could do a figure skating contest where they all keep trying more and more difficult moves until they all fail but one, but it would take a long time, be draining, and cause injuries as there is no foam pit like in high jump.

Other sports try to solve this by letting you do 2 or more runs, and taking the best run. This is good, but we also have an instinct that the person who can do it twice is better than the one who did it once and fell down the other time. Sports that sum up several times demand consistent performance, which is good, but in essence they also put a major punishment on a single failure, perhaps an even greater one. This approach requires you be a touch conservative, just under your edge, so you know you will deliver several very good runs, and beat somebody who dares beyond their ability, but falls in one or more runs. At least it reduces the luck.

The particular problem is this. “Big failure” sports will actually often give awards either to a top athlete who got a good run, or to the athlete who was more conservative in choosing what to do, and thus had a very high probability of a clean run. Fortunately this will not happen too often, as one of the top tier who went-for-broke will have that clean run and get 1st place. But the person who does that may not be the one who is overall most capable.

Imagine if high jump were done with each competitor choosing what height they wanted the bar to be at in advance, and getting one try at it, and getting a medal if it’s the highest, but nothing if they miss.

The sports like short-track speed skating, which are highly entertaining, have this problem in spades, for athletes who wipe out can also impede other athletes. While the rules try to make it up to the athlete who was knocked out, they have a hard time doing this perfectly. For example in the semi-finals of short-track, if you get knocked out while you were in 3rd, you are not assured to get a consolation qualification even if you were just about to try for 2nd with the strength you were saving.

In some cases the chaos is not going away because they know audiences like it. Time trials are the purest and fairest competition in most cases but are dead-boring to watch.

Curling is the best Olympic sport

Some notes from the bi-annual Olympics crackfest…

I’m starting to say that Curling might be the best Olympic sport. Why?

  • It’s the most dominated by strategy. It also requires precision and grace, but above all the other Olympic sports, long pauses to think about the game are part of the game. If you haven’t guessed, I like strategy.
  • Yes, other sports have in-game strategy, of course, particularly the team sports. And since the gold medalist from 25 years ago in almost every sport would barely qualify, you can make a case that all the sports are mostly mental in their way. But with curling, it’s right there, and I think it edges out the others in how important it is.
  • While it requires precision and athletic skill, it does not require strength and endurance to the human limits. As such, skilled players of all ages can compete. (Indeed, the fact that out-of-shape curlers can compete has caused some criticism.) A few other sports, like sharpshooting and equestrian events, also demand skill over youth. All the other sports give a strong advantage to those at the prime age.
  • Mixed curling is possible, and there are even tournaments. There’s debate on whether completely free mixing would work, but I think there should be more mixed sports, and more encouragement of it. (Many of the team sports could be made mixed, of course mixed tennis used to be in the Olympics and is returning.)
  • The games are tense and exciting, and you don’t need a clock, judge or computer to tell you who is winning.

On the downside, not everybody is familiar with the game, the games can take quite a long time and the tournament even longer for just one medal, and compared to a multi-person race it’s a slow game. It’s not slow compared to an even that is many hours of time trials, though those events have brief bursts of high-speed excitement mixed in with waiting. And yes, I’m watching Canada-v-USA hockey now too.  read more »

A BIOS and OS designed for very fast booting (and aborting)

We all know how annoying it is that today’s much faster computers take such a long time to boot, and OS developers are working on speeding it up. Some time ago I proposed a defragmenter that notice what blocks were read in what order at boot and put the contiguous on the disk. I was told that experiments with this had not had much success, but more recently I read reports of how the latest Linux distributions will boot as much a 3 times faster on solid state disks as on rotating ones. There are some SSDs with performance that high (and higher) but typical ones range more in the 120 mb/second rate, better than 80 mb/second HDDs but getting more wins from the complete lack of latency.

However, today I want to consider something which is a large portion of the boot time, namely the power-on-self-test or “POST.” This is what the BIOS does before it gets ready to load the real OS. It’s important, but on many systems is quite slow.

I propose an effort to make the POST multitask with the loading of the real OS. Particularly on dual-core systems, this would be done by having one core do the POST and other BIOS (after testing all the cores of course) and other cores be used by the OS for loading. There are ways to do all this with one core I will discuss below, but this one is simple and almost all new computers have multiple cores.

Of course, the OS has to know it’s not supposed to touch certain hardware until after the BIOS is done initializing it and testing it. And so, there should be BIOS APIs to allow the OS to ask about this and get events as BIOS operations conclude. The OS, until given ownership of the screen, would output its status updates to the screen via a BIOS call. In fact, it would do that with all hardware, though the screen, keyboard and primary hard disk are the main items. When I say the OS, I actually mean both the bootloader that loads the OS and the OS itself once it is handed off to.

Next, the BIOS should, as soon as it has identified that the primary boot hard disks are ready, begin transferring data from the boot area into RAM. Almost all machines have far more RAM than they need to boot, and so pre-loading all blocks needed for boot into a cache, done in optimal order, will mean that by the time the OS kernal takes over, many of the disk blocks it will want to read will already be sitting in ram. Ideally, as I noted, the blocks should have been pre-stored in contiguous zones on the disk by an algorithm that watched the prior boots to see what was accessed and when.

Indeed, if there are multiple drives, the pre-loader could be configured to read from all of them, in a striping approach. Done properly, a freshly booted computer, once the drives had spun up, would start reading the few hundred megabytes of files it needs to boot from multiple drives into ram. All of this should be doable in just a few seconds on RAID style machines, where 3 disks striped can deliver 200mb/second or more of disk read performance. But even on a single drive, it should be quick. It would begin with the OS kernel and boot files, but then pre-cache all the pages from files used in typical boots. For any special new files, only a few seeks will be required after this is done.  read more »

No announcements for seasoned flyers

On a recent trip on a plane equipped with personal inflight video screens for each seat, I decided to watch a movie quickly and then have a nap. So I started watching the movie right after settling into the seat, about 20 minutes before takeoff. I figured with that I would watch the 1:30 minute movie through the meal service and be ready for the nap about an hour into the flight. What I learned instead was a greater awareness of just how many announcements there are on a typical flight these days. That’s because the in-flight system paused the video with each announcement and put it through my noise cancelling headphones.

The many announcements included:

  • The routine ones about the process of takeoff. Door closing. Seatbelt sign on. Various blah-blah-blah
  • The huge array of safety announcements and instructions I’ve seen literally hundreds of times.
  • A very few useful announcements: Destination check, reasons for delay, updates on flight time.
  • Some possibly useful announcements (cell phones off now, OK to use electronics now.)
  • Ads: Join our frequent flyer program, get our frequent flyer card, shop from the duty free cart, buy meals, buy drinks (which did not even apply to those not in coach.)

The cacophony is getting worse, almost as bad as when you’re sitting in the terminal with the endless announcements. They know people hate that in the terminals and offer the paid lounge with no announcements, but I’ve said they should just use cell phones instead and give us peace. On Japanese Shinkansen, they also offer a “quiet car” with no announcements — it is up to you to set your own alarm to make sure you don’t miss your stop if you want to sleep or relax. The trains are so on-time you can do this.

How about doing something like this, at least on a modern airplane where you have a personal screen for each seat?  read more »

Travel notes from the Alps, Davos and elsewhere

I recently went to the DLD conference in Germany, briefly to Davos during the World Economic Forum and then drove around the Alps for a few days, including a visit to an old friend in Grenoble. I have some panoramic galleries of the Alps in Winter up already.

Each trip brings some new observations and notes.

  • For the first time, I got a rental car which had a USB port in it, as I’ve been wanting for years. The USB port was really part of the radio, and if you plugged a USB stick in, it would play the music on it, but for me its main use was a handy charging port without the need for a 12v adapter. As I’ve said before, let’s see this all the time, and let’s put them in a few places — up on the dashboard ledge to power a GPS, and for front and rear seats, and even the trunk. And have a plug so the computer can access the devices, or even data about the car.
  • The huge network of tunnels in the alpine countries continues to amaze me, considering the staggering cost. Sadly, some seem to simply bypass towns that are pretty.
  • I’ve had good luck on winter travel, but this trip reminded me why there are no crowds. The weather can curse you, and especially curse your photography, though the snow-covered landscapes are wonderful when you do get sun. Three trips to Lake Constance/Bodenzee now, and never any good weather!
  • Davos was a trip. While there was a lot of security, it was far easier than say, flying in the USA. I was surprised how many people I knew at Davos. I was able to get a hotel in a village about 20 minutes away.

On to Part Two  read more »

Making volunteer grunt-work and unconferences sustainable

This weekend I spoke at BIL, a conference that was created to play off of the famous and expensive TED conference. BIL began as an un-conference, which is to say an ad-hoc conference created on short notice where the attendees are the speakers. Such conferences tend to be free or near-free. The movement begain with Tim O’Reilly’s FOO Camp. FOO camp is for Tim’s friends, and he has far more friend that can come. One year, he was explaining how he rotated among people and so some of those who were not invited that particular year (including myself) had a “BAR” camp which was a tremendous success, and created a trend.

The first two BILs were a lot of fun and worked pretty well. They had a variety of sub-par speakers, as these “anybody who wants to can talk” conferences often have, but there was always tons of hall conversation or sessions in other rooms to make up for that. And a modest number of TED speakers came over and gave their TED talks for free at BIL, and various regular TED attendees came as well.

This year’s BIL did not live up to the earlier standard, and the hard-working and generous organizers are fully aware of that, so this is not an attempt to criticise them, but rather to look at the problem. Many things went wrong, including a last minute need to move the conference from a Saturday and Sunday(with only Saturday morning overlap with TED) to Friday and Saturday morning, which had total overlap with TED and minimal weekend time. This change was forced because no venue could be found (cheaply enough, at least) which would offer Saturday afternoon and Sunday. However, it was a ruinous change — attendance on the workday Friday was way down, and even lower on Saturday, and no TED speakers came though a few attendees showed up, mostly near the end in the 2 hours after TED that BIL went on. The “outdoor” post-sessions were of limited success as a conference, but OK socially (I did not attend the planned Sunday events.)  read more »

Off to BIL and TED

Tomorrow, I will be speaking on pre-Robocar technology at BIL an unconference that parallels the famous and expensive TED conference. This is in Long Beach, CA. Unconferences are fun, cheap and often as good as expensive conferences. I will also be attending a reception at TED tonight for Singularity University, which I lecture at, so I may see you if you’re at TED as well.

Last night’s EFF bash was a great success. Thanks to Adam Savage and all the others who made it go so well.

10 year term as EFF chairman winds down, EFF 20th anniversary tonight

In early 2000, after a tumultuous period in the EFF’s history, and the staff down to just a handful, I was elected chair of the Electronic Frontier Foundation. I had been on the board for just a few years, but had been close to the organization since it was founded, including participating with it as a plaintiff in the landmark supreme court case which struck down the Communications Decency Act in 1996.

Having now served 10 years as chairman, it is time to rotate out, and I am happy to report the election of John Buckman, founder of Magnatune and Bookmooch (among other ventures) as our new chair. As a part-time resident of Europe, John will, like me, offer an international perspective to the EFF’s efforts. Pam Samuelson, a law professor of stunning reputation and credentials, is the vice-chair for the coming 5-year term, replacing John Perry Barlow.

I would love to claim credit for the EFF’s tremendous growth and success during my tenure, but the truth is that our active and star-studded board is a board of equals. We all take an active role in setting policy and attempting to guide the organization in its mission to protect important freedoms in the online world. While it would shock most of my previous employees, my board management has been very laissez-faire. I and the other board members try to let our great team do their stuff.

After I became chairman, one of the best things we on the board did was to re-recruit Shari Steele, our former legal director, to become the new executive director. Shari had been with the EFF for many years but had left to work on a new venture. We brought her back and it’s been positive ever since. We also recruited Cindy Cohn to be our legal director. Cindy had a long history of friendship with the organization, having worked tirelessly with our help on the fight to stop export controls on encryption. WIth these two appointments, I and my fellow board members started the course for an incredible decade. In spite of a chaotic global economy, during this period, our fundraising, budget and staff size have more than tripled. (That may seem minor for a dot-com but it’s great news for a non-profit.) We’ve boosted membership and membership dontations, increased funding from foundations, and created an endowment to assure the EFF’s future.

The EFF is now 20, so I’ve been privileged to chair it for half of its lifetime. In that period we’ve seen dramatic victories for free speech, privacy and freedom to program. We’ve stopped e-voting abuse and rootkits in your music CDs. We’ve protected bloggers as journalists and preserved anonymous speech online. We’ve stopped encryption software from being controlled like a munition and had so many other triumphs, big and small. We’ve also seen an expanded technical and activism program, as our technologists have led the way in unveiling things like secret dots generated by colour laser printers that track your printouts back to you and network interference with filesharing by cable ISPs.

We’ve also had our failures, but even those have spoken loudly about the quality of our team. When we took Grokster/Streamcast to the supreme court, our client lost, but the court laid down a fairly narrow standard that allows software developers building new generations of publishing products to know how to stay clear of liability. Our cases against the White House’s warrantless wiretapping program have hit major hurdles, one of which was an act of congress created specifically to nullify our attempts to have a court examine this program — granting a retroactive immunity to the phone companies that did it. Bad as that was, I figure if they have to get an act of congress to stop you, you know you’ve hit a nerve.

We’ve also hit many nerves with our great FOIA team that has uncovered all sorts of attacks on your rights, and continues to do so, and our team of activists and our new international team are working hard to promote our doctrine of free speech and freedom to develop technology around the world. With all our team does, many are shocked to find it is only around 30 people. Still, we could do much more and your donations are still what makes it all happen. I hope that if you believe in the duty to protect fundamental freedoms online, you will work towards that end directly, or consider outsourcing that work with a donation to us.

I am not leaving the EFF — far from it. I will continue to be an active boardmember. In addition, I will begin to re-explore commercial ventures, seek new opportunities, and continue on my quest to become a leading evangelist for one of the world’s most exciting new technologies — robotic transportation. At my robocars site you can see my beginnings of a book on the subject, and why it may have the largest positive effect on the world that computer technology delivers in the medium term. Of course with my EFF hat on you will find growing sections on the freedom and privacy issues of the technology.

During my tenure, I have served with a tremendous group of fellow board members, as you can see from the biographies at the EFF board page. I will continue to work with them to protect your rights as the world becomes digital, and I hope you will all join with me in supporting the EFF with your thoughts and your dollars.


We’ll mark the transition tonight, Feb 10 at the special EFF 20th birthday bash at DNA lounge. This fundraiser can be attended with a requested $30 donation, and there is also a special VIP event earlier where you can mingle more intimately with the special guests, such as Mythbuster Adam Savage. We have quite a program planned.

A road-trip travel agent

I’ll have many more observations about my recent trip to DLD, Davos and the Alps soon, but one thing I’ve decided I do want to find (or train) is a travel agent/helper who can assist well with unscheduled travel (ie. a road or railpass trip.)

With unscheduled travel, you don’t know in the morning where you will end up that night. You only figure it out later in the day. Sometimes you just drive until it starts getting late and then you pick where you will end the night. It’s hard (or expensive) to do this in high season but in low season you can always find a room, and I and many others like that sort of freedom.

So when you do pick where you want to end up you have a few options:

  1. You can have a guidebook or database (such as AAA in the USA) and phone around places until you get something you like
  2. You can hunt around for web access (better if you have a data plan on your phone) and use sites like TripAdvisor and the various booking search engines (like Kayak/Sidestep) to find a decent hotel at a good price.
  3. You can just drive into town and look for Vacancy/Zimmer Frei signs and go in and ask the price.
  4. You can find somebody to do this for you.

There are problems with all these approaches. Method 3 (especially using tripadivsor) helps you avoid turkey hotels and find the better values. However, the databases cover only a fraction of the hotels, and the online reservations systems also cover only a small fraction of hotels in an area. There will be better values out there. On the other hand, many hotels offer a better price through the internet than if you call them, or will charge even more if you just walk in.  read more »