But the interesting thing about Koza’s proposals, and my suggested extension of them, is that the country can change the system somewhat with just the action of a few key states, and not through a constitutional amendment. We won’t easily get the constitutional amendment as there are states that benefit strongly from the existing system, either because they are swing states that get all the attention, or they get disproportionate representation (3 votes for Wyoming).

Now a small compact of states can’t force a preferential ballot outside their own borders of course. A larger compact of states (with 200 or more electoral votes, and of course with 270) could do just about anything they wanted of course, even declare that the election will only take place in those states, and the votes in other states are irrelevant! (It would be interesting to see the supreme court challenge over that.)

For example, a large or majority compact could declare a preferential ballot in those states, and rule that the votes go to the winner of a preferentially ballot combined from all states that conduct a proper preferential ballot (in the compact or not.) This can happen without requring 3/4 of the states to ratify or 2/3 of congress. It’s a much, much lower bar, though as noted there would be controversy about doing an “end run” around the constitution.

Fringe candidates can’t force a runoff as yet. The compact in fact would assure a majority for somebody in the electoral college, especially as it gets larger. Official runoffs, on the other hand are possible. As flawed as the voting machines many counties are buying are, one thing they do allow is quickly counting more elections before the electoral college’s deadline.

I disagree that fraud in swing states is harder. Success at any type of vote-manipulation, legal or illegal, is more likely in a swing state of course — it’s almost impossible federally. Fraud in swing states can be confined to a small number of precincts, where you can actually cover it up.

The median voter principle drives candidates to the middle, but not that close. As noted, Gore vs. Bush is still a half million margin, and Nixon/Kennedy was 120,000, as close as we’ve come in modern times.

To win such a vote by fraud you have to find a way to steal hundreds of thousands of votes and not get caught, while hoping for one of the closest elections ever.