Smarter power is an interesting concept for small scale loads (laptops, cell phones, and all of the other dozens of electronic doo-dads that people are carting around these days). But I don't see it scaling well at all for loads in the microwave oven/air conditioner/clothes dryer size range. In addition to intelligence (computation) which is getting cheaper with time, a smart power outlet needs sensing and control elements.

Sensing of large currents in high voltage circuits doesn't benefit much from Moore's law. At present, a sensor that can measure 0 to 15 amps at 120 volts AC (standard AC outlet) costs significantly more than the outlet itself. Although every few years something new comes out that lowers costs by a notch or two, it will be while before the cost becomes "negligable".

Worse yet, _controlling_ large currents in high voltage circuits is even more resistant to Moore's law. Yes, MOSFETs have been steadily improving, but the cost for a switch that can control a couple of kilowatt drops by perhaps half every decade at best. It will be at least several more decades before that cost gets low enough to even consider a switch in every power outlet.

(Of course, like any technology, there will always be niche applications where the benefits outweigh the costs. I'm talking about mainstream uses.)

Its not just the cost of the semiconductor switch either. Assume you have a 20A 200V MOSFET, and its carrying 10A. If that power is traveling through 50 feet of wire from a distribution panel, that is at least ten microhenries of inductance. MOSFETs keep losses low by switching quickly from on to off or vice versa. You can't quickly switch 10A in a multi-microhenry inductor without causing voltage transients in the kilovolt range - poof goes your 200V FET.

When you start talking about any serious amount of power, you also have to consider safety. Almost every semiconductor power switch I'm aware of (20 years in industrial power electronics and motor control) fails shorted, not open. So you'll still probably need fuses or circuit breakers as a backup system.

The "benefit" of reducing inrush for motors and light bulbs is also of value only in niche applications. The ancient technology of spinning generators, transformers, and copper wires is remarkably tolerant of momentary overloads. An overload of 10 times rated current for a few cycles is nothing. 150% for a minute is also well within the capability of the system. It is only when you introduce electronics into the power handling path that you start seeing failures during momentary overloads.

I'm beginning to ramble, but you get my drift. "Electronics" and "power" are two very different fields, and it is very rare that you can take something that applies to electronics, and scale it up to residental or worse industrial power levels without completely unexpected side effects.

Regards,

John Kasunich