Brad Ideas - How Prius drivers are gross polluters and other lessons of carbon credits - Comments

How credits work

brad — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 16:12:03 -0700

No, done properly credits are the right system. Our goal is to reduce total pollution, or for more immediate pollutants, pollution in an area. (CO2 is a global thing.)

Society (government) decides how much pollution it is going to tolerate, including none. But it rarely picks "none" because the constituents aren't ready for that. Reducing pollution costs money -- if it saved money you don't need too much incentive to make it happen. You want the money spent on reducing pollution to go where it is the most effective. If you can reduce 1,000 tons of pollutant for $20 by making a factory cleaner or reduce 100 tons for $5 by doing something around your own house, it is far better for the environment to take the $5 and pay the factory. That's what a market in credits solves.

Now, the best credit systems depend on legal total emissions caps, and those caps are supposed to reduce every year. So in the first year, the government might see there is 1 million tons of pollution, and set a cap of 800,000 tons to get people to cut back. Once that is attained, the next year it might reduce the cap to 750,000 tons and so on until it reaches a sustainable level.

Instead of "Think globally, act locally" this is "Think globally, act where your action will produce an ever greater good than it would locally."

These credits create demand for whatever technology works best to reduce pollution. They don't particularly love solar or hybrid cars or anything else. They love what works. It is up to the regular world of investment for people to invest in technologies that in the future will bring good returns. That's a very well proven system.

You're losing the point

Laurent — Mon, 17 Sep 2007 13:08:24 -0700

I have read this interesting but flawed "idea". It seems the writer/blogger loses the point. The main point of buying carbon credits is to over time create a situation that polluting becomes too expensive for companies so they take action to reduce their emissions themselves.

Let's not forget pollution is a process. First: You pollute, then you need to clean up your mess. If you don't pollute, no need to clean up your mess. What the Priuses and Solar panels do for the environment is to reduce the amount of pollution generated in the first place. It is much better than pollute like a pig and pay to have it cleaned up. It seems to me it is a more responsible approach. Also, as some others have said in this post, investing in clean energy like priuses and solar panels will inevitably lead to better products that will become even more viable, cheaper alternatives in the future. So instead of paying to clean up the mess you are making now, you are reducing your carbon output and investing to reduce it even more.

Second point is that if everybody was doing what the writer suggest (buying carbon credits) We would reduce the price of the unit of carbon emission, which would then enable companies to continue to buy cheap credits and keep polluting more. It seems to me that would not really solve the problem...

So in conlcusion: It seems the writer/blogger encourages us to keep the status quo and keep polluting like little piggies and buy a good consciences with Carbon credits...

prius

Anonymous — Thu, 12 Jul 2007 08:39:45 -0700

Do you work or consult for GM? I've never gotten less than 50 mpg on my Prius on a tankfull.

More comment from another Prius driver in the UK

Trefor — Mon, 05 Feb 2007 02:42:03 -0800

I'm actually incredibly pleased with my Prius T-spirit - it's a great car to drive with the integrated satnav,phone, engine monitor & audio + the hybrid drive especially when I'm forced to crawl through London at 5 miles an hour, I regularly get around 50 m.p.g even when I'm doing that - while on a long motorway cruise it easily gets 55 mpg even in winter..and besides the high price of gas in the UK mine is a company provided car which I have to pay tax on - most drivers for an equivalently priced car would be paying at least $6000 a year in tax based on CO2 emissions - because of the low Prius emissions I only pay about $2000 - so I'm twice as happy

And the votes from the UK...

Anonymous — Sun, 28 Jan 2007 15:26:10 -0800

I own a prius as we have a congestion charging system in central london and the prius is excempt. Petrol here costs Â£3.80 per gallon, thats at least $7.50 per gallon. congestion charge at Â£8.00 per day or $15 per day ... call it Â£1800 per year or $3500..

petrol savings at 200 gallons Â£450 or $900 ...

so conservatively I reckon I'm just about ahead of the game....

It's not green but my pockets happier....

Certainly the more expensive

brad — Fri, 05 May 2006 01:36:27 -0700

Certainly the more expensive gas gets, the more cost-effective things that save gas are going to get. Of course what you save in a Prius depends on your type of driving (much more saving in city than highway) and amount, but at today's prices it looks better and better.

You shouldn't think from this article that I really oppose the Prius. The article is really about the economics of pollution reduction, and what credits mean to the equation.

Updated figures

Anonymous — Thu, 04 May 2006 18:31:16 -0700

Using $3.50 per gallon (San Diego price today) and 44 mpg Prius:
Avg of 180 gal/year savings over a Corolla and 284 over a Camry comes to 232 gal/year, or $812 per year, much more than the orig calc of [ ...call it 200 gallons or $450/year â€” $2800 present value over the predicted 8 year life of the battery.]

Multiplying the 8 year Present value of $2800 by x 812/450 = $5052. And if the battery lasts 12 years then the present value rises to $6761.

Carbon credits

Anonymous — Wed, 01 Mar 2006 06:19:29 -0800

Living in the US, where the carbon market is artificial, there is the option of forming groups which can then fund the development or application of clean technologies in countries such as india. If you think about the fact the country has almost year round sunshine, a very large population and severe power crunch, funding (indirectly buying carbon credits) use of photovolataic systems in housing developments, recycling waste water, etc, would do a bunch of good for your consciounces. Additionally, it would do real good.

Prius cost

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 16:44:56 -0800

Having purchased 2 Prius', we found that the $2k that we initially paid for the 2002 minus the tax deduction, plus the high resale value when we bought the 2004, made up for any difference in cost. That differential has actually increased some since our last purchase. So that while we might have bought a Corolla for about $2K less in 2002 we would also have less on resale.

Prius'

Anonymous — Mon, 20 Feb 2006 16:35:27 -0800

So glad you wrote your very informed rebuttal to the argument discounting the Prius. We had a 2002 and now have a 2004, and we love it. I also agree that the mileage numbers that have been cited are very low given our experience. We live in the NW with mountainous terrain. I drive about 17 miles one way to work in a mix of driving situations - country roads, freeway, and city driving. We have a moderate maritime climate, but do find that our mileage drops to about 47-49 in the colder weather and moves steadily up to 55-58mpg in the quiet sound are additional advantages to all those you stated. Besides all that they are great, dependable, and fun.

Living Car-Free

Steve Erlsten — Mon, 19 Dec 2005 10:27:51 -0800

Congratulations to Moz for going car-free. I've been car-free again for eight months, and I feel great! The ski pants I've had since I was 15 years old fit again!

I hadn't been taking the additional years of food and housing into account, though. Living car-free really will cost more in the long run.

Chris, if you don't mind,

brad — Sat, 10 Dec 2005 13:05:22 -0800

Chris, if you don't mind, can you show us the math that made your PV system economical with the rebates? My calculations suggest you need $2 to $3 per watt total cost to break even, and I have not seen systems at that price even with the rebates. This is compared to the historical 11% annualized return of the S&P 500.

Solar power AND Prius

Christopher Allen — Sat, 10 Dec 2005 12:13:27 -0800

I currently have a large array of solar power panels on my home, and my intent is to purchase a Prius and install the mod http://www.edrivesystems.com/ as soon as it is available. It adds some batteries and allows you to plug in and charge your Prius while in your garage. This drastically increases the fuel efficiency. In my particular case, where most of my car trips are nearby around Berkeley, very little gasoline or any will be used. And since my electrical power is generated by my solar panel and not power plants, very clean.

I fully expect that this will not be very economical. My roof PV system was only economical because I got in just under the wire with some Calfornia incentives. However, I feel that supporting these efforts will hopefully make them more economical in the future.

The Prius batteries (which

JHW539 — Tue, 06 Dec 2005 20:27:02 -0800

The Prius batteries (which have been in use in the Prius by the thousands for over 8 years) show no signs of actually requiring replacement after only 8 years. They are really quite coddled by the control system (minimal depth of discharge and good charge management) and likely to last the life of the car (200k+, as a few already have). The fear of a big cost to replace the battery appears unsubstantiated and I have no idea where the incorrect 'oh, you'll have to replace the batteries' meme even started. It's not a flashlight - the batteries seem to be about as reliable and long lived as automatic transmissions (actually moreso in my unlucky experience), yet no one factors in the cost of replacing an automatic transmission after 10 years/150000 miles (the length of the Prius battery warranty in CA). If you don't believe the Toyota engineers about the battery pack, "We have lab data showing the equivalent of 180,000 miles with no deterioration and expect it to last the life of the vehicle," nor trust the 8 year in-the-wild record, or find comfort in the decade-long warranty, then I guess you should budget in the cost of replacing the battery pack. In the same vein, I will budget in the cost of a new transmission for the next Ford I buy (which will be around never, unless its a '65 Mustang fastback - I have a softspot for rolling art).

The problem with hybrids is the extra cost (and the waiting lists). The cost is a real issue, which I think was actually the main point of your original post. But I have yet to hear a single supported concern about hybrid technology that has any legitimate factual basis.

And I'm not doing it. I was

brad — Tue, 06 Dec 2005 14:08:17 -0800

And I'm not doing it. I was just noting that I had read reports that NiMH recycling wasn't at the level that LAB was (by law or otherwise). I am concerned that if the battery fades by 8 years and you only get back a $200 recycling bounty, it does add quite a bit to the cost of the hybrid. This will take time to work out. And indeed, in 8 years we will probably see better battery tech but that won't mean free, just cheaper when it is time to replace. Of course where I grew up, cars were only good for 10 years anyway. Here in California they are good for much longer.

How Prius drivers are gross polluters and other lessons of carbon credits

brad — Sun, 04 Dec 2005 19:46:22 -0800

I’ve been thinking more about environmental economics since I blogged about retail carbon credits. I was surprised about how cheap (some would say unrealisticly cheap) wholesale credits are — about $2.20 per tonne of CO2. (Correction: I wrote this item based on that price but it’s dropped even further in the last month, now just $1.60/tonne CO2 in Chicago, but $25 in Europe.)

Today, many of my friends have bought a car like the Toyota Prius, feeling they are doing their bit to help the environment by burning less gas. The Prius costs around $3,000-$6,000 more than a comparable old-style engine car (in part because high demand keeps the price high), and the savings on gasoline don’t justify it on a financial basis unless you do nothing but drive all day. So the main reason to buy it is to help the environment and to make a statement before your peer group.

Problem is, there’s an argument that you’re hurting the environment, counterintuitive as that sounds. And no, it’s not just the unanswered questions about recycling the fancy batteries in the Prius when they fade. Read on…