Brad Ideas - Is robot delivery on the roadmap for self-driving cars? - Comments

"Given the ability of

dieta — Thu, 13 Dec 2007 11:01:09 -0800

"Given the ability of several cars to navigate a complex route in the recent DARPA competition completely autonomously and a General Motors project to demonstrate driverless cars traveling at 60 miles per hour by 2008, the projection of RFID-controlled cars by the year 2056 is a good example of linear thinking," says Ray Kurzweil. "I believe we can anticipate cars to be doing much of our driving for us in the 2020s if not sooner."

No word on flying cars. Personally, I think anybody who says we won't have them by 2010 is engaged in linear thinking. But then, I'm no Kurzweil.

UPDATE FROM STEPHEN: "Beyond Tomorrow" had a segment recently about an anti-collision radar system for passenger cars. Such a system could really cut down on distracted driver-type accidents. It also looked to be ready to market in Europe.

The Mercedes test vehicle has long range and short range radar systems that surround the car. The car is programmed to stop rather than rearend somebody if the driver is distracted.

There are a couple of practical reasons why we'll have driver assist systems for awhile before we'll see complete automation. First, these initial driver assist systems won't have to be anywhere near as sophisticated as those systems that competed in the DARPA Grand Challenge.

Second, there's the issue of products liability. This Mercedes is equipped with a "driver assist" system, not full automation. It's a little like a driver's ed car. There's a safety brake, but you are still the driver in command. If you have an accident, then (arguably) you couldn't blame the manufacturer unless a system malfunction directly caused the accident.

But if the car is doing it's own driving, then obviously the car manufacturer would have a difficult time avoiding responsibility in the event of an accident.

So, we'll see a slow march toward full automation via various "driver assist" systems. At first it will be simple collision avoidance by braking, then collision avoidance by steering out of the way of a crash.

Eventually these systems will take on all the tasks associated with driving. Then you'll just give it a destination and sit back and enjoy the ride.

UPDATE AGAIN: Well, that didn't take long. Apparently Honda UK is offering a driver's assist sytem that amounts to a full freeway autopilot.

I'll be taking a wait-and-see approach.

H/T to eisendorn.

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Submited by : Dietas

Brad, I think another

Anonymous — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 21:19:21 -0700

Brad,
I think another pathway would be a car share program. The big inconvenience of car share programs is you have to get to and from one of the parking areas for the car share cars. It would be great to be able to call up a car and when i am done with it send it on its way from were ever I am.

Is robot delivery on the roadmap for self-driving cars?

brad — Mon, 25 Jun 2007 13:41:10 -0700

Last week I talked briefly about self-driving delivery vehicles. I’ve become interested in what I’ll call the “roadmap” (pun intended) for the adoption of self-driving cars. Just how do we get there from here, taking the technology as a given? I’ve seen and thought of many proposals, and been ignoring the one that should stare us in the face — delivery. I say that because this is the application the DARPA grand challenge is actually aimed at. They want to move cargo without risks to soldiers. We mostly think of that as a path to the tech that will move people, but it may be the pathway.

Robot delivery vehicles have one giant advantage. They don’t have to be designed for passenger safety, and you don’t have to worry about that when trying to convince people to let them on the road. They also don’t care nearly as much about how fast they get there. Instead what we care about is whether they might hit people, cars or things, or get in the way of cars. If they hit things or hurt their cargo, that’s usually just an insurance matter. In fact, in most cases even if they hit cars, or cars hit them, that will just be an insurance matter.

A non-military cargo robot can be light and simple. It doesn’t need crumple zones or airbags. It might look more like a small electric trike, on bicycle wheels. (Indeed, the Blue Team has put a focus on making it work on 2 wheels, which could be even better.) It would be electric (able to drive itself to charging stations as needed) and mechanically, very cheap.

The first step will be to convince people they can’t hit pedestrians. To do that, the creators will need to make an urban test track and fill it with swarms of the robots, and demonstrate that they can walk out into the swarm with no danger. Indeed, like a school of fish, it should be close to impossible to touch one even if you try. Likewise, skeptics should be able to get onto bicycles, motorcycles, cars and hummers and drive right through the schools of robots, unable to hit one if they try. After doing that for half an hour and getting tired, doubters will be ready to accept them on the roads.