Vendors push back on California Robocar regulations - plus Tesla and Apple news

California Hearings

Wednesday, California held hearings on the latest draft of their regulations. The new regulations heavily incorporate the new NHTSA guidelines released last month, and now incorporate language on the testing and deployment of unmanned vehicles.

The earlier regulations caused consternation because they correctly identified that nobody had sufficient understanding of unmanned vehicle operations to write regulations, but incorrectly proceeded to forbid those vehicles until later. Once you ban something, it’s very hard to un-ban it. The new approach does not ban the vehicles, but attempts instead to write regulations for them that are too premature.

Comment from developers of the vehicles reflected sentiment that all the regulations are premature. California worked together with NHTSA on their regulations, and incorporated them. In particular, while NHTSA’s regulations lay out a 15 point list of functional domains that creators of vehicles should certify, the federal regulations technically declare this certification to be optional. A vendor in submitting a report can explicitly state they decline to certify most of the items.

California suggests that this certification might be mandatory here. For all my criticism of NHTSA’s plan, they do have an understanding that it is still far too early to be writing detailed rules for vehicles that don’t yet exist, and left these avenues for change and disagreement within their regulations. The avenues are not great — I feel that vendors will be concerned that truly treating the regulations as voluntary will will be done at their peril — but at least they exist.

Several vendors also pointed out the serious problems with traditional regulatory timelines and the speed of development of computer technologies. The California regulations may require that a car be tested for a year before it is deployed. On the surface that sounds normal by old standards, but the reality of development is very different. Pretty much all the vendors I know are producing new builds of their vehicle software and testing them out on the roads the next day — with trained safety drivers behind the wheel. The software goes through extensive “regression testing,” running through every tricky situation the team has encountered anywhere, as well as simulated situations, but the safety driver is there to deal with any problem not found with that testing.

Vendors won’t release into production cars with only one night of testing, but neither can they wait a year. This is particularly true because in the early days of this technology, new problems will be found during deployment, and you want to get the fixes out on the road as quickly as is safe to do. An arbitrary timeline makes no sense.

This is just the start of the problems. While one may argue that it was always going to be hard for startups and tinkerers to develop these cars, these regulations (and the federal ones) put more nails in the coffin of the small innovator. The amount of bureaucracy, the size of the insurance bonds and many other factors will make it hard for teams the size of the DARPA challenge teams who kickstarted this technology and make it real to actually play in the game. The auto industry has a long history of allowing tinkerers to innovate, even at the cost of relaxing safety requirements applied to them. We may end up with a world where only the big players can play at all, and we know that this is generally not good at all for the pace of innovation.

Delivery Robots

The new regulations allowing unmanned vehicles might seem to open doors for delivery robots like we’re working on at Starship. Unfortunately they seem aimed primarily at large vehicles. Since California rules define the sidewalk as part of the street, these regulations might end up demanding a small, slow, light delivery robot still comply with the bulky Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (which are meant for passenger cars) and is impossible without major exceptions being made. (More reading is needed to tell if this is truly how this will play out.)

Tesla says all future cars will have full sensor suite

Tesla has declared that all their future cars, including the lower cost Model 3, will include the full suite of radars, cameras and other sensors needed for self driving. That’s good news, though the Tesla sensor suite, lacking LIDAR, is not currently sufficient for a full self-driving car. Tesla is making a bet of sorts that by the time this becomes in play, cameras and radars will be sufficient to make an acceptably safe system. If not, they will have to stick with autopilot function on those cars. Since there is strong evidence that LIDAR will be inexpensive in a couple of years, I don’t believe anybody should plan to deploy their first (and riskiest) robocars without every sensor that’s at all affordable. Why make it less safe than you could just to save a few hundred dollars?

Today, Tesla can’t do that because no production low cost LIDAR is available. Most other teams are betting it will be. In the future, when cost becomes a bigger issue, vendors will decide to eliminate sensors based on cost.

Apple might have changed their plans

Apple hasn’t said anything official about their rumoured car project. All we know has come from leaks and from looking at who has been hired or who has departed. (I do know one secret thing about the Apple car — it will only work if you have a new iPhone.) Many rumours came out this week that Apple may have cancelled plans to actually make an Apple Car, and instead will take an approach more like Google — building the software and self-driving systems and letting others worry about car manufacture. That is a good strategy, so Apple is hardly out of the game, but it does mean it’s less likely the world will see a car with the particular Apple flair and marketing genius.

The relationship between powerful self-drive system developers (like Apple, Google and Uber) and car manufacturers will be an interesting one. Car makers are used to being in charge, owning the process and owning the customer. So are these hi-tech companies. But many companies will do “contract manufacturing” in auto. If Apple shows up with a purchase order for 100,000 cars to be built to their spec, there are many companies who will take the order, even if the high end Daimlers and Toyotas of the world won’t. So just as Apple doesn’t build the iPhone and gets Foxconn to do it, the fact that Apple will stick to the software systems doesn’t mean their design will not appear in a car.

Here is a summary of Apple car rumours.

Tesla's Strategy

Brad I'd love to hear you expand on Tesla's strategy to go without LIDAR sometime. They seem very contrarian to the rest of the industry in both not using LIDAR but also being extremely aggressive and willing to accept more risk - specifically accepting an accident rate 2x less than a human driver. My impression is that Tesla is betting that obtaining a massive driving corpus will be far more important than any extra sensor information, including LIDAR.

Such an aggressive approach likely would save lives but accepting a 2x accident rate seems like a much lower standard than Google and the rest of the industry. Further, I have to imagine their cars will often be laughably stupid when forced to deal with any problem that requires any social intelligence (e.g. driving through a puddle of water when people are waiting at an intersection, or a policer officer directing traffic etc..) Even if they can provably show they can save lives I just wonder if they will be able to handle the regulators and media scrutiny.

Tesla RADAR

I did some commentary on their plans earlier that are here.

Tesla plans to try to do more with radar. It’s an interesting plan, though it requires new technology. Automotive radars that they use today were designed for ADAS, and the reality is there is much more that can be done with radar. They also plan to use cameras an neural networks. Some day that will be good enough to replace lidar, but for now it’s a bet that this happens sooner than cheap lidar.

The difference of Unmanned delivery robots & delivery robocar

Unmanned delivery robots could be differ to robocar for delivery.
I guess delivery robots could treat more small, light and hasteless goods.
I hope it can goes an errands through sidewalk.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

Post new comment

His name is Brad Templeton. You figure it out.
Please make up a name if you do not wish to give your real one.
The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Personal home pages only. Posts with biz home pages get deleted and search engines ignore all links
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options