Kevin Kelly's Best Case Scenario podcast on robocars

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Kevin Kelly is easily on the list of the world's best and most experienced futurists, and a friend. He's started a new podcast series to explore the most optimistic forecasts for the future, and he asked me to join him for one of his very first episodes.

Usually I like to temper my optimism, and talk both about the utopia and what can go wrong, but it's fun to just look at some of the great things in what I call the robocar vision that got me interested in it and how it can change the world.

He has some other folks who are great guests for his initial drop, and while I have not listened to them yet, I am sure they will be good.

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Dear Brad,

Enjoyed your podcast with Kelly. San Francisco is proposing to shut down 15 BART stations because of financial problems since COVID. https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=23653#more-23653. Could this be an opening for your proposal? As a figleaf to cover such an abrupt change, could robocars share the transit way if train frequencies were reduced. Or could a robocar company take over a transit line and keep trains but integrate the trains into the robo car operating system? Or are trains really just a dead operating loss to be mothballed. If so how could robocar companies make it politically palatable to do a switch?

BART is designed in classic rail style. Stations are "on line" which means the vehicle in the station blocks the line. No passing. Headways must be at least a few minutes.

You can pave over tracks and leave the rails in place, streetcars have rails in the middle of pavement. To do this well you want a way for vehicles to pull off the line and stop, with lots of space, and a way for vehicles to leave the line and go to city streets easily. BART is 3rd rail, which means it must not be "at grade" and that makes this harder, but not impossible.

Now, in the places they are talking about closing entire ends of lines, in Pleasanton and Martinez, that could be an opportunity, but the challenge is, they are out of money, so what pays for it? Maybe private entities?

So you pave those sections of line (leaving the rails embedded in the pavement in the event somebody wants to bring them back, though I doubt that.) At the stations, though, you have to somehow build bays for vehicles to pull off the line and slow down and get into the bay. That's going to cost. You also need a way to transfer off of an arriving BART to get into the robovans heading further down the line. Not hard to design if building from scratch, harder to retrofit. But if you could, if you came in on rail, the train would pull in and across the platform would be vans, waiting to go to each station, as well as vans for stations that don't exist yet, where the van will leave the track and go to a stop on surface streets. You transfer to the right van and off it goes. At the end of the line the bays are simpler, but for example in Pleasanton you need different bays. Most people would be getting into a van to head to meet an outgoing BART, others would take vans going to other local stations.

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