I still think you're grinding that one a bit too hard. Having one previous cycle is enough to make things hang together without getting to wound up about history or cover-ups. One thought: the reference to the lords of Kobol being numerous makes me wonder if Kobol might be framed as an attempt by Humans and Cylons of an earlier time to get together. If that was the case and it failed, perhaps, Hera is a potential breaking of that cycle.

Mostly, this is a question of focus: Do you nitpick the logistics and mythology, or put more emphasis on the dynamic? You have to rememeber, the original concept was a bit flawed and squeezing it to fit a more naturalistic framework kicks up issues of its own. One you accept the flaws and hairline cracks and see the other side of the deal about people and outcomes things fit together more. It doesn't solve the problems but life's like that.

I've noticed how the Japanese tend to be more positive about AI and American's tend to be more negative, while there's the beginnings of a trend in both cultures to look more at their traditionally opposite view. AI is not automatically a good thing or a bad thing, and will be interesting to see how that develops. Indeed, your topic on automated cars is the beginning of a discussion on this, and the perfection and service issues that flow from that.

The whole cycle thing has been freighted with meaning that NEVER ONCE was mentioned in the show. There are no statements, direct or indirect, that the "cycle" is a rise and fall of civilization through endlessly recurring human-robot wars. Not one. This is an invention of the viewers which now seems to be treated like gospel.

The clearest statement on the "cycle" in the entire series is during Roslin and Starbuck's conversation in which the President asks Starbuck to return to Earth to retrieve the Arrow of Apollo. From their conversation, taken in its most basic form, Colonial religion indicates that the universe tells the same story over and over again but each time the actors play different parts.

From this you could easily surmise that Colonial religion believes that when the universe ends it is reborn anew and everything happens EXACTLY the same. But the souls of living beings get shuffled around so that -- at least from a spiritual standpoint -- everyone plays a different part each time. This would be more than adequate for religious prophecy to be accurate, drawing on the endless repetition that the spiritual realm is well-aware of. And it would also mean that no one is trying to escape the "cycle" since it is predetermined. There is only understanding and the hope that as living beings who can only understand the events of the past and present, that the future will turn out OK.

I think everyone sees the same images on the screen and hears the same words but expects something and then interprets the show to fit that pre-conceived notion. For myself I see the cycles clearly and expected to see Earth blasted before they got there but with much older ruins. I was so sure of what I expected to see I didn’t even notice the ruins at the end of Revelations appearing as recent as they obviously are from postings of the scenes on the internet. With that new info I’m now a bit confused by the Cycle theory but I think they originally intended it to be Earth of the first Cycle, Kobol the Second and the Colonies as the third. I imagine the entire show as sort of following breadcrumbs back to truth of the origins of Colonials and Cylons. So now I’m trying to rationalize, more cycles, or perhaps advanced tech on Earth for the first Cycle that allows the Cinder Planet ruins being older than they appear, meaning the first cycle starts in our not so near future. This is less dramatic than it all starting in our near future but like I said, I’m confused now. Some people need to have things spelled out clearly or their pre-conceived notions get in the way. It happens to me although I don’t need it spelled out, just consistent. Now I’m wondering if the entire BSG show is a brilliant example of misdirection, magnificent writing and maintaining context or are they making mistakes and back peddling, bobbing and weaving to tie things together. It seems to me Razor what an attempt to tell a story that takes place in the second season that helps move the fourth season into a direction they couldn’t keep it going in the third. The BSG movie they’re talking about producing late this summer but releasing before the rest of the fourth season airs is supposed to take place in the first season. I suspect that’s intended to fix some mistake they’ve made like finding Earth with ruins to recent to be the first Cycle. All of this is of course my interpretation of events with my expectations in the way and I’m trying to fit it all into some concept I’m trying make sense of. I suspect there are surprises in store for everyone as this thing winds down. The thing I love most is when viewers try to fit the original BSG and G1980 into RDM’s BSG. The only thing that gives me pause about this is Starbucks magic trip. I think a few like Brad are more objective and are closer to the plot than most are comfortable with. Its fun to think about all this though until its finally revealed in the last few minutes of the last episode.

I like your theories. I've been thinking a bit about the nature of Starbuck and wanted to run it by you. So, let's assume for the moment that Starbuck did go through some kind of wormhole that brought her back to Earth. Because of the distance, her arrival on Earth would be in the future by Galactica's perspective. Let's say that Earth when she arrives is pretty much what we expect it to be. The reality that we live with today. An arrival of a human being from outer space would be a momentous event. My theory is that when Starbuck arrived, she brought with her the stories and religion of the Colonies, particularly those of Aurora. The humans recreated that religion on Earth, rejecting the dominant "one-god" religions they grew up with.

At some point, Starbuck became a leader on Earth, possibly even regarded as a living incarnation of the Goddess Aurora. Thus, you have the Temple of Aurora built in it's greatest city in her honor. Eventually, something goes wrong. War, disaster, not clear yet what it is, but civilization crumbles and it is entirely Starbuck's fault. Perhaps she commits suicide or is killed, but somebody or something creates an exact copy of her and her ship, ties the emergency signal into it, and sends it off through the wormhole to arrive when Galactica reaches the nebula. Again, because of the distance, this would be in the past by Earth's perspective. The somebody probably intended this to be a warning, but clone Starbuck gets the message wrong and leads the humans there anyway.

You state that, "This should make no sense to people who believe that Earth was a vacant planet colonized by a Kobolian tribe." I've never been 100% clear on the sequence of events in these characters' ancient history, but I came to the conclusion that it went something like this: a tribe of humans, the "13th tribe", left Kobol and colonized Earth. Some of them then returned to Kobol, either as a one-time trip or as part of an ongoing trade route. The 12 colonies of Kobol might have already had mascots (the ram, the archer, etc.), and when the 13th tribe arrived on earth, they might have fancifully made up 12 constellations to match the 12 mascots they already knew about. When their representatives went back to Kobol, they told of the 12 constellations, and the patterns were then incorporated into the "ancient flags of the colonies". You seem to think there is some inconsistency here, but it goes away if you imagine that the flags came AFTER Earth was colonized and the constellations were discovered/created. I think this is entirely plausible given the time line that we know of. It seems that the 13th tribe left Kobol much earlier than the exodus of the 12 tribes, leaving plenty of time for interstellar travel and trade, and time for new flags to be created featuring these constellations.

As for the cycle of time and the number of cycles, like others who have commented here, I'm not to worked up over it. I always assumed that the exodus from Kobol was due to a cataclysm, and now 3000 years later another cataclysm has occurred, and boom, there's your cycle. Any notions of a cataclysm on Earth are pure speculation and not supported by anything said in the show other than in the very last episode, where we see a devastated planet that may or may not be Earth. And if it is, we don't know when the devastation happened.