EVs won't overload the power grid, in fact they (and ice) can save it.


With California mandating all new cars be EVs by 2035, and other places doing the same, EV-skeptics argue the power grid can't handle this. This claim appeared again during the recent California heat wave that came close to overloading the California grid over a false report that the state asked EV drivers not to charge their cars. (In reality it just repeated the everyday policy to avoid charging from 4pm to 9pm on high usage days.)

But it turns out the grid has lots of spare power capacity for EVs, though it needs more energy capacity. But EVs are the perfect match for solar power and can help enable a renewable grid, combined with the slowly growing use of ice to store cooling energy to use later in the heat of the day. Forget lithium, water is the cheapest energy storage medium you'll ever get. (Real ice, not Internal Combustion Engine ICE.)

Read more at EVs won't overload the power grid, in fact they (and ice) can save it.


Very interesting, do you know if anybody picked up the Ice Bear tech after Ice Energy went bankrupt? Or any comparisons of Ice Bear vs geothermal heat pumps?

Yes, the assets were bought and are sold by https://thuleenergystorage.com/products/ in a modified form. And there are other ice energy storage companies, some older than ice energy. And there are lots of credits to be had for putting them in, which makes it a puzzle as to why it's not done more. However, as heat waves create all the peak demand on the grid, it's such an obvious plan that one hopes it will get past the hump and become the norm for AC. And later for heating, though since there is no phase change with water, it's not quite as easy to do with heating, and you need bigger tanks, and probably fairly hot water to avoid even bigger tanks which can be dangerous. Ice is easy, stores a lot of cold and is not dangerous.

When it comes to electricity, the supply must perfectly match demand at all times.

insightful thread from Alexander Stahel ( BurggrabenH on twitter )

Let's talk electricity
10:34 AM · Sep 8, 2022

part of thread -

The grid builds on physics, not ideology. One such law says that the alternating current that flows through the grid needs to match generation with consumption because electricity cannot be stored in the grid. It is all that matters.

(more later about incrementals like batteries and pump storage).

The grid's health condition, measured locally but of supra-regional significance, is the network FREQUENCY.

It reflects the indispensable balance b/w generation and consumption. It MUST be kept in a VERY tight corridor to avoid infrastructure damage or a shut-down.

In order to keep the frequency STABLE, at any given moment across load & generation are forecast, by the quarter-hour, hour, day, etc) and auctioned off among thousand of participants. All of this is, may I say, is high tech (unlike e-retailing) - major league tech.

Frequency deviations – incidents - happen for various reasons, require INSTANT addressing & increased with the share of wind & solar.

Embrace renewables but know that they are NOT dispatchable (reliable) sources of energy from a grid perspective (think minute by minute).

... For transition to work, wind & solar must only be permitted if delivered with required c-storage & high-voltage transmissions lines as its final dispatchable package. That would reveal its hidden unit cost;

...Can technology bail us out? ...
"energy miracles" break-through tech on storage, fission, fusion, hydrogen, thermal - We need all of it. ....

now read thread #2 - For those of you short of time, attached a brief summary of the issue at hand.

If you just post as anonymous threads are less likely to be engaged.

Think about it. Your Tesla is a just a big DC battery you can hook up to whatever.
You know your iPhone dies around 1pm at school so you bring a power brick to recharge it.

Well in Florida, when we have hurricanes, we all line up at the gas pump because we anticipate that we can't get gas later. We'll in the future, Floridians will just skip the line and pump their batteries at home. Then, god-forbid, if a hurricane does come and shut down the grid, we can hook up our EV's to our homes and get power for 72 hours. https://www.motortrend.com/news/2022-ford-f-150-lightning-electric-truck-charging-generator-power/

I think what Brad is saying is that CA is telling people to 'don't recharge in the day' is not a weakness. It's actually a resilient strength. 'Recharge your car latter for cheaper' Help CA, help yourself. If there is an outage, god-forbid, you don't need to fire up a generator, just hook up your Tesla to your home. Wall-street should make some contracts that rewards you for buying electricity outside the 'maximum surge' of the electricity chart as some sort of function of time. If you get enough volume, it could be lucrative.

news dot stanford dot edu/press/view/45245

Stanford study

....move to electric vehicles will result in large costs for generating, transmitting, and storing more power.

...the state has targeted five million EVs on the road by 2030. When the penetration hits 30% to 40% of cars on the road, the grid will experience significant stress without major investments.

... 5.4 gigawatts of energy storage capacity is the capacity equivalent of 5 large nuclear power reactors.

ourfiniteworld dot com/2022/09/20/ramping-up-renewables-cant-provide-enough-heat-energy-in-winter/

I don't claim the current grid can provide all that energy. I said it must grow around 20% in energy capacity. What I wrote is that it doesn't need that much more power capacity, if the cars charge when there is surplus power, and not when demand is high. Of course there needs to be investment in new grid power, and storage as well.

question: for every 1 million new EVs, what is the % of Cali's grid consumption (see 2019 PEW Trust estimate at bottom)

Stanford quote:
(When the penetration hits 30% to 40% of cars on the road, the grid will experience significant stress)

VIO - about 18 million on road in 2021 in Cali and thus 35% penetration is about 6.3 million EVs -

quick calculation: 8.8% of CA grid used in 2031 is by 7 million new EVs
from further below

8 years till significant grid stress

When EV VIO (vehicles in operation) hits 18 million EVs, which will be about 75% penetration, 20% of grid is for EV. The grid set for big burp at 10% of consumption by EVs, imagine 20%.

EVs Dec 2021 on roads - 563,070 in CA
2030 Target- 5 million "new" EV sales

So by 2032, which is TEN years, Cali will have about 7 million EVs on road (see CA ZEV targets below)

historically, 2 million new car sales per yr in Cali, and now there is a new yearly ZEV target - see below

Target - 14 million "new" EVs on road by 2035.

2021: 18 mil currently registered VIO

CA yearly ZEV sales targets –
35 % 2026 = 700,000
68 % 2030 = 1,360,000
100 % 2035 = 2,000,000

Pew Trust says in Cali,
5.4% of the state’s electricity, or 17,000 gigawatt-hours by 2030
(est based on ?? million EVs)

Then, if
4000 kilowatt-hours per auto per yr,
28,000 gigawatt-hours for 7 mil EVs.
8.8% of CA grid used in 2031 is by 7 million new EVs

California’s plans to increase electricity consumption by as much as 68% by 2045.

A model utility with two to three million customers would need to invest between $1,700 and $5,800 in grid upgrades per EV through 2030, according to Boston Consulting Group.

just the 2030 goal requires the equivalent of about 1.75 large nuclear reactors ???

Caiso sees $30.5bn in high-voltage bulk transmission infra needed

10% of grid by 2030 better estimate
using avg miles of 13,476 per year at 0.346kWh per mile for 4662 kilowatt-hours per EV per yr, and most estimate 7.5 mil EVs in operation by end of 2030.

www dot rechargenews dot com/energy-transition/california-scopes-30bn-grid-plan-in-face-of-unprecedented-green-power-demand/2-1-1165980

You don't have to say who you are but pick and reuse a pseudonym if you want conversation.

U.S. electric vehicle adoption will be much slower than in the coming years than previously anticipated, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas says.

Jonas now sees electric vehicles reaching 11% of the U.S. auto market in 2025, and 26% in 2030, according to a new note released Wednesday. That's down from his prior U.S. EV penetration forecast of 13% and 32%, respectively.

A weak global economy and high battery costs are raising concerns about EV demand in China and Europe as well.

Jonas cites a "complete narrative change for EVs" over the past six months.

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