Analysis of MobilEye strategy in robocars and video interview with CEO Amnon Shashua

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It doesn't get as much coverage as others, but MobilEye has amassed an impressive portfolio of components to give them a shot at the robotaxi and robocar world (one of the few with a shot at both.)

Today I release both a new article with my analysis of their strategy and components, and also a video I made of an interview with Amnon Shashua, the founder and CEO of MobilEye, which is now a unit of Intel but will be spun out soon as a public company again.

Read Intel’s MobilEye Levels Up To Take On Tesla And Others In Self-Driving

And watch the video:

You may also want to watch Intel's own videos explaining their approach.

Comments

The Bosch and VW/Cariad partnership for ADAS and AV announced today fails to mention Mobileye. Does Volkswagen commit to Mobileye to gather REM Roadbook data towards the end of this decade?

One would think the Mobileye REM Roadbook contract is not year to year but rather a 3 or 5 year agreement.

The new BMW partnership with Qualcomm/Arriver and the new Volkswagen partnership with Bosch could limit resources to any current or renewable BMW and Volkswagen contracts with Mobileye in this decade.

1
we are acquiring the IP and capabilities to design our own software. And we are forming a world-class team with Bosch to join forces with our own software engineers who’ve been working on developing VW’s proprietary 2.0 software stack. Congrats to all who’ve made this happen!
2
the alliance nicely complements last year’s Hella Aglaia camera software acquisition and what we’re doing in the AD space with argoai and the ID BUZZ robotaxi.
3
in the end, it’ll be a game of vertical integration: From sensors to the latest and most precise road data, software and AI training loops for adequate perception and the compute power to take the right decisions in very diverse traffic situations worldwide.

vw use bosch in next year 2023 car
bosch work with vw for year

Your reference to early 2022 was poorly researched.

You author in May 2020 the intended date of a Robotaxi launch in Israel in early 2022. But legislation to allow Robotaxis only achieves draft form as of Dec 2021 (Reuters Dec 7). To imply a tecnological slowdown for the timeline implimentation is not substantiated. Mobileye then went on to add Munich to Robotaxi rollout because of acceleration in legislation in Germany in September 2021 for a mid 2022 rollout.

Israel eyes 400 self-driving electric taxis,

Is the CEO of Mobileye truly informing the public that a current 1000 hour MBTF for camera vision based automated driving system will improve to 10,000 hour MBTF by Q4 of 2023 when UDELV intends to have vehicles on the road with vision, lidar and radar. A 10x improvement in 21 months?

I believe he is predicting a 1,000 hour MTBF for his camera based system, and that makes a 10,000 hour value for the camera/lidar/radar system more attainable. I would easily believe that, and have a harder time with the 1000 hour camera only system.

And yes, 10x improvement in 21 months is not unreasonable. Like many such technologies, improvement is on an exponential. Which can mean that if it took you 6 years to get to 99.9% from 9%, it might take just 6 more years to get to 99.9999% if you can keep up that exponential pace.

for specifics see PPT for ces 2020

see slide "Motivation Behind Surround CV", slide 10, from the CES 2020 Under the Hood of Mobileye’s
Computer Vision

straight forward slide

That's about driving in Tokyo. Do you mean another slide?

for the PDF download
1st slide reads CES 2020 Engines Powering L2 to L4

slide 10 labeled the Motivation
Behind Surround CV

pdf on intc dot com under news > presentation dated jan 7 2020
title Mobileye CES 2020 Presentation – Prof. Amnon Shashu

But yes, he is predicting 10,000 hour MTBF for the vision only system, that is true. Back then he predicted it for 2022, and obviously that's not true. This is not particularly surprising.

I don't think the figure of 10,000 hours between injuries is correct for humans, I put it closer to 20,000. For fatalities it's around 2 million hours (he says his numbers are approximate, and so are mine but not off by factor of 2.)

He thinks they will see 1,000 hours this year, so we'll see how it does. But since that's vision only when he adds the LIDAR and radar (particularly the ones coming in 2025) I could see that boosting things a fair bit.

In your interview Mobileye says will see *many times* 1,000 hours this year

Does Zeekr SuperVision launch require a certain MTBF threshold internally at Mobileye?

1000 hr MTBF at approximately 37.5 miles per hour average yields 37,500 miles.

Zeekr goes live with Mobileye SuperVision L2+ in first half of 2022.

Shashua states improvement in 2022 to "way above over 1000 hours" MTBF.

Sandbagging sounds more plausible than tarnishing the premier rollout of SuperVision with Zeekr.

zeekr autopilot is not called supervision

No he says "way above" which to my mind would could mean as little as 1,200 to 1,500 hours. But we'll see how he does.

statistics NHTSA links

Reddit article - "Mobileye CEO on the rate of failures for humans vs. autonomous vehicles" - has links to NHTSA stats. Posted by strangecosmos 2 yrs ago under r/SelfDrivingCars

Waymo's fleet of AVs (690 max) drove 2.3 million miles in California between December 1, 2020 and November 30, 2021. "Waymo finished 2021 with 690 AVs in CA"

CA had a total of 1,397 DMV-approved vehicles in Dec 2021.

Cruise AV fleet stayed about 200 in CA in 2021, with 210 by end of year.

Still have found one news item about sdk for EyeQ in last 60 days with the exception of comment made by Ford.

meant Still have NOT found

No indication found yet that supports VW Group vehicles built upon the SSP platform architecture will incorporate Mobileye technology.

Also Interesting that Bosch and VW started collecting fleet road data in an alliance in 2021 and never mentions Mobileye. This collected data parallels the data Mobileye collects for REM yet no reference to Mobileye.

This recent news of both the VW and BMW change of development partnerships for ADAS for future platform architectures would make for a good case study.

The German OEMs have had, correctly, a fear that the software components (particularly driving system) of a car will become the most important part of the car. Not the engine or luxury or even their brand. That is a nightmare for them, unless they can own that system. They fear a world where Waymo dominates, but they are not keen on a world where MobilEye or Intel dominates either.

Ownership of IP is not exactly a new concern in the evolution of a software-defined vehicle.

If the conceptual flow of the core competencies of AV driving systems followd this general framework:
Perception > Forecasting/Prediction >
Planning/Policy > Control
then the core objective of the OEM is to be entirely responsible for the behaviorial planning?

For a long time. But previously, software and computing were not in control. ECUs and code are things a car OEM buys in putting together a car today. In the future, they are the car, and the maker of the software controls what the car is.

Did Aptiv acquisition of Wind River occur to late in the movement to software defined car cycle?

Too late for German OEMs to neuter Waymo.

here coming Foxconn

Samsung now building new central compute chip for Waymo. Amusing
Volkswagen wanted to take silicon IP in house but Bosch will force CUDA into Cariad stack. So much for owning silicon IP as well.

ARM'S SOAFEE could sway Cariad.

Complete malarkey to deny there does not exist an underground stream of inside knowledge about future plans in the AV industry given as much as the engineering talent jumps around. Loose lips is not a phenomenon but human nature. Give me a break. The Qualcomm automotive plans were well advanced by 2019. VW caught few by suprise with Bosch partnership. Silicon Valley does not move as fast as claimed when dealing with verticals. The list is endless.

simulator like Waymo, Cruise and Tesla.

mobileye loses adas business from major oem accounts for new ev platform architectures ....

going public on the exchanges only glosses over this loss of future business that intel cannot remedy

what is current mobileye moral ?

Who cares????
VW & BMW just reduced Mobileye status to a minor player in 6 months.

make car got zoox

did any information provided in the investor day presentation from yesterday from the mobileye ceo surprise you?

Intel Announces That Mobileye Has Submitted S1 Draft Registration Statement

SEC S1 registration review is between 90 to 150 days.

Expect little news from Mobileye in the interim due to the quiet period.

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