Tesla raises FSD price to $15K. Could it mean they might buy a way out?

Topic: 
Tags: 

Tesla announced the price for the FSD software add-on will rise to $15K (from $12K) Sept 5. The price is amazingly high for a prepaid pre-order of a product that doesn't exist yet. Yet people only pay $4K for it in the aftermarket, and the take rate keeps going down as they raise the price, negating revenue gains.

So what does it all mean? One unusual option is that at $15K/head, Tesla could fail at producing the FSD software, but buy another company that does succeed (using LIDAR probably) and retrofit the old cars at a profit. At this price it's hard for them to lose.

I look at all the issues around this unusual product and its prices over time and where it might go in this new Forbes site article:

Tesla raises FSD price to $15K. Could it mean they might buy a way out?

Comments

China may determine the future of Tesla.

Biden Blocks Chip Exports To China

Keep asking yourself, how will "success" be defined?

Tesla loyalists posting Blume seeks Cariad software development bailout with deeper involvement from Bosch and Continental Group.

Continental is now apparently also to play a decisive role.
The corporation will develop the so-called middleware of the VW OS, according to industry sources.

Continental may now play a decisive role alongside Bosch to accelerate software development. The DAX listed Group will develop the so-called middleware for VW’s operating system, writes Handelsblatt, quoting industry sources. The middleware enables data exchange between the software and hardware of a car. Neither Continental nor Cariad commented.

Is ApexAI a company to keep your eye on?

Only 3% of cars in CA are electric and already the electrical grid can't handle charging in peak times. Yet CA politicians want to force the other 97% to be electric too? Where will the power come from?

This is a very common misconception, so I will write an article about it shortly. It is never intended to charge cars at peak times, and there is an immense of power available off-peak to charge all the cars, and there will be more long before we get high penetration of electric cars. It's almost the exact opposite of what people write, which is because certain parties are deliberately lying to you.

ISEF (Innovative Small E-Fleets), is designed to grant incentives to California companies with 20 or fewer trucks operating in California and less than $15 million in annual revenue. These companies can get between $90,000 and $240,000 per vehicle in rebates to electrify their fleets. Also open to non-profits and companies that help service disadvantaged communities - these companies can get an increase in their rebate voucher as an additional incentive.

Apple has hired Gregory Baratoff, the former VP of Autonomous Vehicles Lab at Hyundai MOBIS, to be the Sense Architecture Lead on ProjectTitan.

It was revealed today that Apple hired the VP of Autonomous Vehicles Lab from Hyundai MOBIS, Gregory Baratoff – and his LI profile indicates that he was officially hired in August. Prior to his five years at Hyundai MOBIS, Baratoff spent almost 12 years at Continental Corporation in Germany as Head of Camera Sensors Development. This is another high-profile hire for Apple's Project Titan.

Baratoff's field of expertise, as listed in a South Korean article, includes camera advancement development, image processing, vision algorithm and camera sensors. Below Baratoff is pictured with along with his Hyundai MOBIS autonomous vehicle team of engineers.

At the end of the day, Gregory Baratoff is yet another major hire for Project Titan along with Luigi Taraborrelli from Lamborghini, 31-year veteran from Ford Desi Ujkashevic, Dr. Manfred Harrer from Porshe AG, Dr. Anton Uselmann from Porshe AG and others from BMW and Tesla.

The basic discovery that Apple hired Baratoff was announced in Mark Gurman's Power On newsletter this morning where he mainly recapped what he expects to be introduced on Wednesday morning. Like with many Apple fans, I'll wait for the Keynote instead of the last blast of chasing rumors.

Baratoff's Medium blog shows much interest in AI.

eg
DeepMind Paper Provides a Mathematically Precise Overview of Transformer Architectures and Algorithms.

www dot patentlyapple dot com/2022/09/apple-has-hired-the-former-vp-of-autonomous-vehicles-lab-at-hyundai-mobis-to-be-the-sense-architecture-lead-on-project-tita.html

get serious. world does not need another $75,000+ transport

baidu proof at $37,000

CARIAD explains the need for a transition from object level to AI based sensor fusion.

cariad dot technology/de/en/news/stories/sensor-fusion-introduction dot html

Cariad seems to be making a pointed comment about another company's approach

OEMs need to reduce EVs production costs by at least 40% to match ICEs.
Reuters

This is debatable. Over the live of a car, today's EVs already have competitive or superior total cost of ownership than a similar ICE car. The problem is that only a subset of the market thinks about TCO.

Your typical ICE car at 25mpg and 10,000 miles will burn 400 gallons of gasoline per year. That's $2,000 for the gasoline and $600 for maintenance. The EV will use about $350 for electricity (source at home, add $100 more for road trips) and $300 for maintenance. Over the 20 year life of a car, the EV is cheaper. It's just that people don't easily think that way.

Consumer Reports estimates the average EV battery pack's lifespan to be at around 200,000 miles,

According to McKinsey, electric vehicles can cost about $12,000 more per vehicle to build than internal combustion-powered ones.

Stellantis CEO Claims EVs Cost Up to 50 Percent More to Buildp

futurecar dot com/5230/Stellantis-CEO-Claims-EVs-Cost-Up-to-50-Percent-More-to-Build

48%-64% live paycheck to paycheck
Yearly EV sales over the next 15 years will fall well short of even conservative estimates

The typical American house­hold is spend­ing $460 more each month to buy the same goods and ser­vices as last year.

WSJ

Add new comment