What are the options for Ukraine?

Topic: 

In shock like most of us, I am trying to play out the various options for Ukraine and the west. None are good. What others can you suggest?

Capitulate

Ukraine quickly surrenders, Putin installs puppet government. Much repression, modest insurrection, if that, as in Crimea.

West wimps out: Russia walks away with success, looks for next target. Extreme sanctions: Russia toughs it out, or Russia capitulates, restoring a battered Ukraine. Or Russia goes nuclear.

Resist

Heavy damage and carnage in war, Russia still wins and installs puppet government. Strong resistance and insurrection. High cost on both sides. Ukraine in ruins.

  1. It works, like for Afghans and Soviets. Russia eventually retreats.
  2. It persists long term. West wimps out -- see above
  3. It persists, but west makes extreme sanctions -- see options above

Resistance is inspired by refusal to surrender (good) but country left in ruins (bad.)

NATO intervenes

NATO and other forces call Putin's nuclear bluff. Long or short war until Russia forced to retreat. Major damage, cost and casualties for Ukraine, allies and Russia.

Or: Putin is not bluffing, uses nuclear weapons. Minor escalation until Putin capitulates or is deposed. Megadeath. Or possibly Gigadeath in full nuclear exchange if Putin is mad.

Russian Revolution

During any of these plans, Russian people revolt and unseat Putin. How likely is it? Russian officers refuse nuclear orders. Possibly very good outcome, and more likely the harder the fight in Ukraine or with west.

Comments

life and humanity is more than a list of I II III IV ...

best to read multiple viewpoints of the analysis of major speeches by the Russian president since 2014.

perhaps read about the Orthodox schism (j. schneider) or nuclear Orthodoxy (adamsky).

afterwards, consider a new cyberspace era (derek reveron on d vs k vs p).

and to think, russia gdp is size of texas.

or at opposite end of spectrum does china and russia control fate of any green revolution?.

I cannot fathom how complicated the globe has become in the last year.

Even China leader Xi faces real internal party opposition. And Putin is almost 70 years old.

"Just to mention the possibility of using nuclear weapons is such an [act of] gigantic irresponsibility, that it says a lot about the personality of who is doing that"

emergency meeting called for Friday -
Russia's Federation Council has called an unscheduled meeting on March 4, 2022

"Putin’s Attack on Ukraine Is a Religious War"

John Schindler

Russia's foreign ministry said on Monday that those supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine will bear responsibility should they be used during Russia's military campaign there.

The ministry added that the steps the European Union has taken against Russia will not be left without a harsh response.

Atlantic Council - March 1, 2022
Four Ways The War In Ukraine Might End

The above was a follow-up to a speaking engagement weeks ago.

The AC is part of the calculating geopolitical machinery.

Russian court accidentally delivers guilty verdict on Putin’s Ukraine war (2018 - 2019) - Atlantic Council blog Dec 2021.

Thousands of Russian scientists and journalist have condemned the military action, risking fines or even prison sentences.

In an open letter to the increasingly isolated dictator, they said there was no 'rational justification for this war' and warned the country was 'doomed to isolation'.

More than 6,100 academics, scientific journalists and medics have put their name to the document despite Russia's strict anti-freedom of speech laws.

Any public criticism of the Russian state can result in fines of up to £6,200 or jail sentences, under laws introduced in 2012.

The coalition has demanded 'an immediate halt to all military operations directed against Ukraine'.

Some 6,840 people have been detained at anti-war protests since the invasion began on February 24, according to the OVD-Info protest-monitoring group.

DEFCON 4 is next on stage

Swift sanctions are essentially dead in the water. Only seven banks, representing a quarter of the Russian banking sector, are subject to the sanctions. What happened is that once this sanctions list went through the mill of talks with member states, only this pared-down lists survives. The EU originally promised to hit 70% of the Russian banking system. One reason for the exclusion of Sberbank is the deposits held by savers in the bank’s EU subsidiaries. It would have triggered massive deposit insurance claims.

the below current headline on marketwatch is unimaginable and unfathomable.

headline: Investors are boxed out of Russian stocks. Here’s how you can still buy the big dip.

Putin is cornered. Russia will wake up to Putin is wrong. Then what?
DEFCON 4 next.

Statements by Putin in last our on TV adds more proof this is spinning out of control.

Putin “bring into question the future of its statehood” of Ukraine

Mmmm, another possible scenario:

The 'west' i.e. Europe / US pressures China and India through progressively more severe sanctions / goods tarriffs eg. on exports / imports; China / India in turn exert pressure on Russia to stop.

A diplomatic 'Off ramp' provided for Russia - eg. Crimea and Donbass region annexed to Russia.

Possibly also, Ukraine declares neutrality. West limits weapons / troop deployments in eastern Europe.

Sanctions lifted if Russia provides financial aid to Ukraine. Russia, hopefully, decides that they misjudged, this was a major mistake and does not try anything like it again.

Agreement reached between all nations that currently have nuclear weapons to a drastic reduction in their arsenal eg. 100-250(max).

.....just a suggestion.

The 5000 word Russian and China joint statement before the invasion is all one needs to know.

NATO green lights members to send fighter jets to Ukraine

Russian forces have been and continue to bomb schools and hospitals at an alarming rate according to the Kyiv Independent. Enough said.

Heinous rate - Alarming rate not accurate enough

Things can get much worse than you realize.

With no accurate prediction of Putin invading Ukraine until well after the troop build-up was into the later stages, this thought resonates:

The world has changed. There is no going back … we are in an entirely new era.

Early November 2021 is when US Intelligence agencies informed US President of growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Will the world know if China had knowledge of threat prior to early November 2021?

In March and April 2021, Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian military to begin massing thousands of personnel and equipment near its border with Ukraine and in Crimea, representing the largest mobilization since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This precipitated an international crisis due to concerns over a potential invasion. Satellite imagery showed movements of armour, missiles, and heavy weaponry. The troops were partially withdrawn by June 2021, but the crisis was renewed in October and November 2021, when over 100,000 Russian troops were massed around Ukraine on three sides by December. Despite the Russian military build-ups, Russian officials from November 2021 to 20 February 2022 repeatedly denied that Russia had plans to invade Ukraine.

China President Xi will undermine Putin leadership.

russian missiles bomb Lutsk airfield 50 miles from poland border

2.7 billion China + India
450 million EU
145 million Russia
85 million Iran
10 million Belarus

China has 425 million poverty level

From a reliable Twitter account:

Belarusian military is set to cross the Ukraine border at 9 p.m. Kyiv time today.

No indication where but western Ukraine is mentioned.

President Biden: Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III, something we must strive to prevent.

President Biden: Russia would pay a severe price if they use chemical weapons.

Unrelated to chemical attack, some wonder what happens if Belarus or Russian mercenaries create a crisis inside Ukraine.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba contradicts Putin and cited zero progress in talks while questioning President Putin's narrative directly.

FM Kuleba: Zero progress in talks... hard for me to understand what kind of progress President Putin is referring to.

DEFCON 4

Foreign news reporters:

Quote:
Ukrainian senior officials said Russia was doing everything possible to draw Belarus into the conflict.

We also understand that the Belarusian government has been doing everything possible to avoid joining this war, Ukrainian deputy interior minister Yevheniy Yenin said on national television on Friday.

China said to be providing intelligence to deesculate the Ukraine war but to whom is the question.

China rumor false

Russia threatens to target foreign military aid convoys to Ukraine.

Russian Deputy FM Sergey Ryabkov said that Moscow had warned the U.S. that convoys of foreign weapons would be:

... legitimate targets for the Russian Armed Forces...

as cited by Russian media RIA Novosti.

NATO Chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier said that a Russian attack on the supply lines of allied nations supporting Ukraine would be :

- a dangerous escalation of the war.

With Putin currently arresting, firing, and placing blame on the FSB security branch and many Army generals, and threatening NATO and EU, the question of how disturbed Putin has become imho raises the preparedness level to Defcon 3.

Thousands of years of evolution of human morality, and we are at a place when a country can bomb maternity hospitals and be punished by losing McDonald's and Ikea.

Why Putin bombs the very same Russian-speaking people he claims to liberate.
....
Putin claims he’s come to save the Russian world and the Russians from Nazism — but he’s mostly bombing Russian-speaking cities. Kherson, Mariupol, Odessa, Kharkiv, these are all cities where the majority of the population speaks Russian
....
Putin doesn’t believe that Ukrainians exist. And he can’t let the new Ukraine state stay alive — he can’t let it slip away from him. So he has to derail the project. He has tried everything. The fact that he had to go to war is already proof that he wasn’t successful, that he couldn’t achieve his goal in any other way.

But the interview glosses over the carnage caused by Putin.

The missle strike on the Ukranian Yavoriv base attack close to Poland border shows Putin believe nothing stop Putin inside Ukraine.

Russian government added that it will continue to kill foreign nationals in Ukraine whom it considers mercenaries.

Putin will make everyone more mad at Russian army.

Quote:

China and Russia are likely to establish far better relations with each other than either has with the United States.

read from user

It will be difficult, if not impossible, to change Kremlin behavior while Putin is in power.

Putin speech to Russian cabinet today is important. The first reviews of speech are not good.

Russia to respond with cyberattack on infrastructure because of drones to Ukraine

The speech is important?

The speech is not important - rather, the speech is foretelling and worrisome.

Putin contradicts earlier statements and admits Russia will face serious problems ahead at home, an abrupt change in tone by Putin.

Hard to find speech in entirety om Twitter with translation so here are quotes of the Putin speech today to Russian cabinet -

1 West is trying to dismantle Russia.
2 Sanctions are acts of economic aggression, economic war and barbaric and aggressive.
3 Russians must protect themselves from the Western fifth column.

Admitted that Russia will -

4 face massive inflation, unemployment, and difficult days ahead, following economic sanctions.

5 more of Putin speech - twitter of Mary Ilyushina -

Tactics of military operation chosen by Ministry of Defense have fully justified themselves. Our soldiers and officers show courage and heroism. They are doing everything to avoid losses among the civilian population.

I want to say this for the first time: at the very beginning of the special operation, in order to avoid bloodshed, the Kyiv authorities were asked not to engage in hostilities, but simply to withdraw their troops from Donbas. They didn't want to. Well, it's their decision.

If our troops operated only in Donbas republics, this would not be final solution, would not lead to peace and would not eliminate threat to Russia... the armed conflict would drag on endlessly, fueled by the revanchist hysteria of the Kyiv regime.

I did finally find jpost story on speech - search for - Putin says West is trying to dismantle Russia, compares them to Nazis .

There is video online as well provided by various users on Twitter with breakdown of speech.

The speech partially reviewed in USNews And World Report -

Putin Defends Brutal Campaign in Ukraine as Global Condemnation Grows

This speech will be studied and scrubbed to determine if the content was primarily propoganda, diversionary or foretelling.

China silence is deafening

China take over russia
china get all from russia cheap

m. shedlock for mishtalk give example in the news Ruble Regains 100 percent of Its Loss

Any recovery in Russia will embolden Putin on both a regional and global basis.

Only event that can help going forward is confusion in China.

China is the only beneficiary from the current environment since beginning of 2022.

What To Do About China
Gordon Chang via The Gatestone Institute on internet

Putin's reputation now permanent harm to more than a few.

China now owns Putin war crimes. Not sure China realized how significant the fallout develops on the world stage. Massive mistake by Xi.

China's Strategic Assessment of Russia - More Complicated Than You Think

from War On The Rocks
Commentary from March 4, 2022

China buys all the cheap Russian oil in market everyday

de-dollarization

20 pc

market crash

russia country collapse
russia civil war
putin coup
world war

much more selloff coming

market go down much again

Given black swan events occur more frequently than most observers concede, ..... China corruption is most susceptible

evil that has no limits

ww3 if russia use chemical bomb

black sea more bad come

putin send many cruise missiles

putin more crazy soon

Alekseyev GRU Dvornikov all bad
chemical weapons next

Zerohedge article

In Stunning Shift, WaPo Admits Catastrophic-Conditions, Collapsing-Morale Of Ukraine Front-Line Forces

russia win now in war
bad for ukraine

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week

oil to cost way more in eu
$185 barrel maybes soon

1
some in Russia are quietly hoping the West will show Putin a way out that lets him save face. But there’s little mood in the U.S. and Europe to reward him for inflicting such devastation on Ukraine.

That may throw responsibility back to those in the Russian elite who are desperate to avert disaster for themselves and their country to find the courage to press Putin to change course.

2
President Putin launched this war in order to try and keep himself in power and to stop any growth of democracy in Russia.

Putin is believed to have surrounded himself with a group of hardline advisors and has dismissed attempts at trying to warn him of the cost, economically and politically, of the conflict.

A high level defection ?

A high level defection ?

quote from new story from website called - the intercept

Anomaly Six with Zignal Labs can monitor the movements of over 3 billion phones around the world with the press of a button

using data from a phone application installed by user with a user constant stream of data purchased directly from application developer like twitter

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