Reports Of The Death Of Self-Driving Cars Are Greatly Exaggerated

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This past month, especially with the shutdown of Argo.AI, have seen a number of declarations of the death of robocars. Thank to markets and expected consolidation, there definitely is a rough patch, but here's the argument that the field is hardly pining for the fjords and some things are going gangbusters, and not a decade or more away.

Read it on Forbes at Reports Of The Death Of Self-Driving Cars Are Greatly Exaggerated

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Baidu will be kicking off Apollo Day today from 5:30 PM PDT to share the progress made in the technology and commercial operation of driverless robotaxis.

Below is the agenda:

Jingkai Chen
Building Safe, Intelligent, and Efficient Autonomous Driving Systems
Jizhou Huang
Rethinking Maps for Autonomous Driving: Apollo's Practice and Insights
Jingdong Wang
Applying Wenxin Large AI Model to Autonomous Driving Perception
Ang Li
Apollo Loop -- The Practices and Thoughts of "Fine Purification, Strong Digestion"
Jian Ouyang
AI Chip Innovation Empowers Advanced Autonomous Driving
Liang Wang
Parallel Development of L4/L2+ Technology in the Era of Intelligent Vehicles

youtu dot be/JISnVvff7Jc

Baidu Apollo has more employees working on its AV simulation than Tesla has working on its Autopilot (FSD), AI, and humanoid bot teams, combined. ApolloDay

Goggo Network and Mobileye plan to collaborate to introduce Level 4 autonomous vehicles for logistics in Europe in 2023.

www mobileye com/news/goggo-network-and-mobileye-plan-to-collaborate-to-introduce-level-autonomous-vehicles-for-logistics-in-europe/

Goggo plans to start operating self-driving taxis by 2024. 

mobileye at 32.75
valuation 26 billion

The quiet period begins when the registration statement is made effective and lasts for 40 days (if revenues are over $1 billion) after the stock starts trading and is for analysts employed by the offering’s managing underwriters and 25 days for analysts employed by other underwriters participating in the IPO. The quiet period also includes 15 days before or after the expiration, termination, or waiver of the IPO lockup period.

Studies indicate for 5 days prior until 2 days after the end of a underwriters quiet period, above-average market returns occurs during those 7 days.

"concluded the only holding period for quiet period plays with statistically significant above-market returns is (-5, +2) days"

These reports are, more often than not, positive. (Underwriters have a strong incentive to boost a company they recently underwrote.) Widely distributed, the first round of reports usually affects a temporary increase in the company's share price.

What's more, savvy investors, having studied the quiet period expiration, often buy shares of a company approaching their quiet period expiration in anticipation of the price increase described above. Thus, a company's share price often rises several days preceding the event.

true to form so far
what manipulation

Tues Nov 29, 2022 low of 26.17
Fri Dec 02, 2022 high of 32.90

Carrefour and Goggo Network are trialling the use of autonomous delivery vehicles in the Plateau de Saclay, France.

www carrefour com/en/news/2022/carrefour-et-goggo-network-sassocient

futuretransport-news com/france-carrefour-deploys-autonomous-delivery-vehicles-in-plateau-de-saclay/

Carrefour today has 12,225 stores in over 30 countries. 321,000 employees

Purchase a Udelv Electronic Control Unit

udelv com/uecu-electronic-control-unit/

www prnewswire com/news-releases/baidu-announces-plan-to-build-the-worlds-largest-fully-driverless-ride-hailing-service-area-in-2023-301688518 html

Japan to open roads to autonomous vehicles in a limited capacity in April 2023.

Japan hopes that it can offer mobility services using Level 4 AVs in 40 areas of the country by 2025, and in more than 100 areas by 2030.

www therobotreport com/japan-to-open-roads-to-autonomous-vehicles-in-2023/

Ford team grows with about 550 from Argo per Tech-crunch

Good reporting Brad as always. Thank you for covering this space so in depth.

I've been in this industry for 20 years now and have seen the excitement and ups and downs. I think there is a non-trivial amount of R&D and exploration interest driving what some companies do versus production-driven automation oriented and deterministic design. That said, I've shared some thoughts on the path to autonomy last year that am sharing here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/reality-autonomy-path-forward-paul-perrone

The Waymo blog Waypoint often presents AV safety testing articles by the company. As an example, Waymo uploaded a new entry yesterday.

when does Amazon buy Aurora

Though Amazon did poke around Argo so who knows. Their zoox tech would make more sense but it's not quite right for a delivery truck, it is true, a bit costly. It does already own a piece, of course.

And Aurora is now trading for not that much over its cash value.

But Apple and a few others would be more likely to swallow Aurora.

Mobileye now sees a revenue pipelinei of ADAS business through 2030 of greater than $17 billion – including $3.5 billion of projected revenue from SuperVision alone, a product that was only launched in the fourth quarter of 2021. Thanks to other new products like EyeQ system-on-chip, the pipeline grew impressively over the course of 2022 as Mobileye added $6.7 billion projected revenue in ADAS, across projected future volume of 63.6 million systems.

In addition to ADAS, Mobileye announced an additional $3.5 billion in expected revenue from Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service products through 2028, based on deals with three major partners, including a recently secured mobility-as-a-service AV program with a leading EU commercial vehicle builder. Mobileye also has line of sight for $1.5 billion in revenue from a single consumer AV (Mobileye Chauffeur™) program through 2030.

“In the short time since we went public in October, Mobileye’s business has accelerated substantially,” said Shashua. “We’ve seen strong positive response from our existing customers and new automakers as well who believe in our vision for building cloud-connected, AI-driven driver assist and autonomous technology that can scale globally and provide meaningful benefits to millions of drivers worldwide.”

Mobileye has kicked off development work with a premium European automaker for programs targeting delivery in 2025, with other customers at advanced stages of development. Overall, Mobileye now expects volume of SuperVision based vehicles to reach about 1.2 million units in 2026.

Just as importantly, OEMs are showing strong desire to leverage investments in SuperVision as a bridge to enable eyes-off autonomous functions – comparable to SAE Level 3 and Level 4 – across a variety of operational design domains. This can be done by simply adding additional sensing suites and computing power in a modular way to create a high-value, cost-efficient, eyes-off product for consumer-owned vehicles in the medium term.

Beyond SuperVision and consumer-owned AVs, Mobileye has continued to develop its Mobileye Drive mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) autonomous vehicle technology in 2022. We recently signed an MOU for several thousand units with a major global producer of light commercial vehicles. In 2023, Mobileye will continue testing its AV tech, with pilots of our latest vehicle technology hitting the road in Germany.

Last year alone, some 233 models launched globally with Mobileye technology inside.

MBLY down below $30
ZF news the issue

Search for

“Mobileye: Now, Next, Beyond”, CES 2023 Press Conference w/ Mobileye CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua (Live)

The Forbes article today covering the keynote is tilted to the subjective side.

news coming "in weeks" per investors meeting at ces

the investors meeting was many days ahead of the Handelsblatt CES Mobileye interview with the same reference to this new SuperVision design win.

Mobileye CEO admits pivot.

"Then we made a business pivot. Instead of trying to make robotaxis and doing everything end-to-end, building vehicles and operations, like Waymo - we will work on partnerships. We want to be in a position where we sell our entire system to a partner, and they build the vehicles and other partners operate them. We already have agreements with companies that are creating demand with platform manufacturers and a revenue pipeline of $3.5 billion by 2028. There is no player in the industry that has such forecasts. What does that mean? That in 2023, instead of 2022, there will be 200 autonomous vehicles on the road with our systems. The big jump will be at the end of 2025, then there will be tens of thousands and at an increasing rate until the end of the decade.
"At the same time, we have a new business activity of developing a privately owned autonomous vehicle, with the goal being the ability to drive autonomously without supervision on highways in 2026. We want to offer a vehicle that is legally autonomous in a certain area. This is a business that did not exist in 2017. It is a new business opportunity. It is not a pivot, but an additional layer in all of Mobileye's business activities."

From Calcalistech in Israel

As the founder confirms, another partnership with a large car manufacturer that does not come from Europe is to be announced in the coming weeks. It would be the seventh cooperation: According to Mobileye, it has already signed contracts with four Chinese and two European manufacturers.

On BMW:
“Hopefully we will have a closer relationship again in the future,” Shashua says of BMW.

On Mercedes:
Shashua thinks little of this approach. “All autonomous driving systems below a speed of 130 kilometers per hour are useless,” he says. Too often drivers have to intervene, the system switches on and off at will. “That cannot be marketed in the future.” The aim must be for the car to drive autonomously from the motorway entrance to the exit – and also to be able to deal with dangerous situations without the driver having to intervene.

Mobileye differentiates between systems in which the driver can take his hand off the wheel and those where where he no longer has to look at the road. “The driver needs to know when the system will intervene and when not,” says Shashua.

On Tesla:
The Mobileye boss believes that Tesla will soon have to make a fundamental change. “What Tesla says publicly is different than what they do internally. Tesla will have to add active sensors, I’m sure,” says Shashua. There are already reports that Tesla is testing imaging radars.

efahrer dot chip dot de/news/kauft-kein-kunde-bmw-chef-gibt-wichtiger-autotechnik-kaum-eine-chance_1011031

reporter needs to re-read Mobileye S1, page 10, Relationship with Intel

from calcalistech today

Mobileye is developing its own technology, but the talk in the industry is that it is in negotiations with Innoviz and is interested in it not only as a potential supplier, but also as a potential purchase. Mobileye's reissue in October 2022 will allow it to complete such a move in a stock deal without turning to its parent company Intel, as was the case with the acquisition of Moovit in 2020.

China's antitrust regulator has suspended the clock in its review of Intel's planned $4.5 billion purchase of Tower Semiconductor.

The clock was stopped by China's State Administration for Market Regulation after requests from the companies, according to a Dealreporter item on Thursday.

It's possible that the deal could end up with remedies at some point.

The clock could resume when SAMR receives answers to questions it has posed to the deal parties, according to the report. The transaction could possibly have another clock stop or pull-and-refile if the parties agree to discuss remedies.

The acquisition agreement gave the companies a full year in which to complete the deal - February 2023.

Intel reiterated in earnings call in late October that it expected the Tower deal to be completed in Q1.

Intel is set to report Q4 results on Jan. 26.

Tower Semiconductor's chip manufacturing technology for laser sensors (photonics) is an important new Intel acquisition for Lidar development and mass production, let alone Intel's Foundry Services 2.0 strategy.

did Zeekr 009 start delivery on January 15 2023?

Zeekr 009, a pure electric MPV, started delivery, and the first batch of users held delivery ceremonies at Zeekr delivery centers in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities on January 15. As the second model of Zee Auto, 76 days after its launch on November 1, Zeekr 009 was delivered as scheduled.

If accurate, video of the full SuperVision capabilities should be surfacing soon.

only 1.2 million SuperVision units in 2026?
the majority is Geely.
Zeekr alone aims to sell 650,000 vehicles a year by 2025.
add the other 3 Geely brands already announced to begin use of SuperVision and there is minor major OEM adoption of SuperVision other than Geely.
Geely could represent 75% of SuperVision sales by 2026.
only 300,000 units from all other oems?

Geely could represent 75% of all SuperVision sales by 2026.

No guests on stage with CEO.

No Moovit discussion.

Changes from the Oct 2022 IPO roadshow presentation to todays presentation is apparent.

some examples

Mobileye delays AV rollouts from sometime in 2024 to latter part of 2025 or 2026.

The EyeQ Ultra transitions into 2 EyeQ7H ?

Revenue estimates for Chauffeur and Drive provided.

Supervision unit sales estimates provided for 2023-2026.

Radar still scheduled for 2025 and not earlier.

As of today, of the 9 models of SuperVision Mobileye is discussing, 6 models are likely from Geely Holding.

Etc

Other details such as simulation design and testing with REM data, validation steps, scalability/ODD/geo-fencing etc should be discussed in greater detail in a detailed blog article.

Prof Shashua understands how complex and demanding validation is both for the OEMs, the regulators and Mobileye and how validation is one of the 800lb gorillas in the room. Again, a blog discussion is warranted as the modularity design underpinning the entire mobileye strategy is too important to be communicated in 2 powerpoint slides.

Nothing really happening until 2025.

New ZF Smart Camera 6 and the Image Processing Module IPM 6 with Mobileye EyeQ6 are ready for Start of Production in 2025.

Smart Camera 6 features a 120-degree field of view, more than 4x higher image resolution (8-megapixels) from the previous generation and greater processing power to enable advanced functions.

The Smart Camera 6 utilizes the latest generation EyeQ6 processor from Mobileye, and the new ZF Image Processing Module systems are also based on EyeQ6 processors.

The systems are fully scalable from a single satellite camera input up to 12 satellite camera inputs as well as multiple radar, ultrasonic or LiDAR sensors. This allows features including AEB and Pedestrian AEB, VACC, Camera/Radar Fusion, 3D surround view, Driver Monitoring and Interior Monitoring, e-Mirror and integration of ZF ADAS and/or OEM algorithms supporting full-featured driving functionality from L2/L2+ to L3, advanced Driver and Interior Monitoring and Automated Parking.

Nothing really happening until 2025.

New ZF Smart Camera 6 and the Image Processing Module IPM 6 with Mobileye EyeQ6 are ready for Start of Production in 2025.

Smart Camera 6 features a 120-degree field of view, more than 4x higher image resolution (8-megapixels) from the previous generation and greater processing power to enable advanced functions.

The Smart Camera 6 utilizes the latest generation EyeQ6 processor from Mobileye, and the new ZF Image Processing Module system is also based on EyeQ6 processors.

The systems are fully scalable from a single satellite camera input up to 12 satellite camera inputs as well as multiple radar, ultrasonic or LiDAR sensors. This allows features including AEB and Pedestrian AEB, VACC, Camera/Radar Fusion, 3D surround view, Driver Monitoring and Interior Monitoring, e-Mirror and integration of ZF ADAS and/or OEM algorithms supporting full-featured driving functionality from L2/L2+ to L3, advanced Driver and Interior Monitoring and Automated Parking.

Google launches HD maps for vehicles, Volvo and Polestar first to integrate.

Google HD maps will only be available for vehicles with which the automaker licensed Google Automotive Services along with the Android Automotive OS.
Google is selling these services to carmakers as an optional buy-in beyond the OS licensing.

Some automakers are shipping cars with the Android Automotive OS, but aren’t using Google Automotive Services.

Google also states the new HD maps will only be available on 'select' roadways at this time. HD mapping is initially focused on high-traffic roads like freeways,

Google’s HD mapping essentially provides extra layers of data over and above the normal Google Maps data, such as precise lane-level and localization data such as recognition of details like lane markings and localization objects, including road signs. Google’s HD map is not a consumer-facing application but an additional layer on top of Google Maps that is transparent to the consumer.

Watching for any Tesla reaction to Google HD maps is a new sport.

Ford has the most curious combination with the 2021 licensing of Google Automotive Services and the Android Automotive OS, the licensing of the Mobileye REM Roadbook for a future version of BlueCruise, the recent acquisition of Argo AI intellectual property as well as the hiring of nearly 700 Argo employees, and the transition to Google Cloud Services.

read the transcript on seeking alpha of doug field of ford at bernstein conference back on november 7 2022

when did vw and ford know?

Jul 20, 2020 - Ford and Mobileye partnership

Feb 1, 2021  - Ford and Google strategic partnership

Sep 7, 2021 - Doug Field joins Ford

Jan 5 2022 - Ford and Mobileye strategic collaboration deepening BlueCruise REM, SDK dev partner

Apr 26, 2022 - Ford delays switch to Android Automotive until late 2023

July 5, 2022 - EyeQ Kit SDK deployment announced

Sep 7, 2022 - Doug Field expanded role

Oct 27, 2022 - Argo announcement. Ford refocus on L2 and L3

Nov 7, 2022 - Doug Field Investor conf talk

Dec 2022 - Ford Argo staff / IP acq peaks

Jan 5, 2023 - Google HD Map launch

Mobileye Q and A from CES keynote buried link.

2 versions of the link to playback the CES keynote from Mobileye (the listed and unlisted versions). There is Q and A on the unlisted version.

The Q and A is available from the link in the Forbes Jan 5th review by BT.

The listed version from the Mobileye YouTube portal edited out the Q and A.

see photos mobileye VW test autos on Munich roads

CES test vehicle for Mobileye demo rides with radar show an Intel branded radar unit. There is test ride video posted today.

The new Wistron agreement with Mobileye for radar production, given the below TSA reference with Intel in the S1, reinforces Mobileye is supported by Intel's involvement in long-term, high volume negotiations between Mobileye and an automaker or a Tier 1 for the advanced imaging radar system.

S1
"we are not licensed to manufacture products based on Intel technology with anyone other than Intel. Pursuant to the Technology and Services Agreement, the license is limited to the development of a specific type of radar for specific applications, and any radar products that do not fall under the scope of the agreement will require a separate license from Intel, at Intel’s discretion. As a result, we will not own most new lidar and radar intellectual property, even if developed solely by us.

Intellectual property developed under the agreement, either solely or jointly with Intel, regarding the radar technology, except for certain rights to specifically identified radar technology which is developed solely by us following the completion of this offering, will be assigned by us to Intel. As a result we will not own most new radar intellectual property, even if it is developed solely by us".

The significant 2025-2026 ramp indicated by developments and the pipeline supports a secondary offering by Mobileye by mid 2024 to accommodate this ramp. Four billion in 2025 projected revenue by analysts requires reserves to procur silicon production for SoCs for EyeQ, EyeC-Radar and Eye-Lidar.

Munich photos look to be ground truth validation with what appears to be a GNSS system in the mix. This same vehicle set-up has been sighted previously.

On a seperate note, 15 of the Mobileye robotaxi vehicles are being deployed in Darmstadt for the RMV PTA operations.

The 14-18 month delay of the AVs (Mobileye Chauffeur) that Zeekr and Vinfast were to originally launch in 2024 was definitely a low key reveal (in the Q&A). But Mobileye Drive is not delayed though and is still a go for 2023.

Will the delay allow the incorporation of the new EyeC-Radar and Eye-LiDAR and deliver a sub $5000 price point? EyeC-Radar (C sample) should be in the field late 2024 per the CEO and production in 2025.

No update on when the revamped EyeQ Ultra (composed now of two EyeQ7 (chiplet tech?)) will be sampling (also announced in Q&A).

Mobileye Drive is not delayed and still rolling out in 2023 -
"this is booked business you know hundreds of vehicles in 2023 but
many many thousands, tens of thousands of vehicles starting from 25 to 28".

For Mobileye Drive, even at $20,000 per kit, $3.5 billion of revenue still represents meaningful unit volume.

Holon Launch (source - company website)

REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS
North America
Start of production in 2025 with an initial annual volume of 5.000 vehicles. Regional headquarters in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

GLOBAL HEADQUARTERS
Europe
Start of production as early as 2026 with an initial annual volume of 5.000 vehicles. Global headquarters and engineering center in Paderborn, Germany.

REGIONAL HEADQUARTERS
Middle East and Asia
Start of production as early as 2026 with an initial annual volume of 5.000 vehicles. Regional headquarters in the Middle East, final location to be determined.

source - company website

The intial start of production for the Holon Mover is planned for the end of 2025 in the USA (press release)

Which AV version did you buy?

My AV drives for me on highways and ramps.

My AV drives for me on highways, ramps, arterial, and rural roads.

My AV drives for me on highways, ramps, arterial, rural and urban roads.

Can I upgrade from one version to another?
No.

Talk about confusing.

new 7 Series G70 will get a Level 3 self-driving system later this year. CTO Frank Weber - Las Vegas CES 2023

BMW CTO went on to specify a “more affordable Level 3 will come over the decade” suggesting the technology will trickle down to lesser models in the years to come. It should be mentioned the 7 Series won’t be available with this sophisticated self-driving system all over the world since the necessary legislation has yet to be finalized. For example, the functionality will be offered in Europe but not in the United States where the necessary regulations have yet to catch up with the advancement of tech.

It is believed BMW’s system will be called 'Personal Pilot' and will be available near the end of the year on the G70 sold in Europe and China. The next-generation 5 Series Sedan G60 launching this summer is rumored to receive the functionality later in 2024 when the 5 Series Touring G61 will also be around.

BMW - leading contender for AV pipeline for Mobileye Chauffeur in 2026

- from 2026 through 2030
- $ 1.5 bil rev
- major premium brand
- Chauffeur CH63 'Highway' (ODD3)
- EyeQ6H (available 2024)

approx 250,000 - 300,000 units over 5 years

How many states in US allow Level 3 vehicles to currently operate on the road? Is 40-41 states an accurate estimate?

Will Level 3 regulations be in place in all US states by 2026 ?

BMW CTO at CES 2023- ' the functionality will be offered in Europe but not in the United States where the necessary regulations have yet to catch up with the advancement of tech '

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